Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Are Softs finally showing signs of life?
Base Metals, Grains, and even Energy have posted strong rallies over the last year. Yet the Softs -- Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, and Sugar -- have continued to struggle below overhead supply.
But we’re seeing all the traditional signs of a structural trend reversal from this lagging group right now.
Let’s take a closer look at Coffee futures to pinpoint why we believe this bear-to-bull trend change is underway…
One of the most anticipated moves that market participants have been waiting for, is a rally in the Commodities space. We had seen some signs of this in December '20-January '21, but those moves didn't sustain. On the contrary, the base metals moved below their resistances and consolidated for two months.
Aluminum was the lone star in this group that continued to power through, despite the overall weakness that was prevalent in this sector.
This was a major reason why we continued to hold out for a rally in the base metals- Relative Strength. Aluminum was displaying relative strength against the rest of the metals. Had it been a scenario of overall weakness, Aluminum would be moving south as well.
We've noticed a pick-up in activity in the same names that were correcting/consolidating and thought this is as good a time as ever, for an update!
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
The weight of the evidence still suggests it's prudent to be a buyer, not a seller, of risk assets for more meaningful time horizons.
Shorter-term, the market looks increasingly messy. For the first time in over a year, defensive assets are beginning to stabilize at logical levels of support, while stocks and major risk groups achieve our upside targets. Even a handful of some key Intermarket ratios are potentially diverging from the broader averages.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Pockets of strength are once again emerging within the Commodity space.
We pointed out that both the CRB Index and the ASC EW33 Commodity Index were breaking above key resistance levels, pointing to a burgeoning upside move last week.
That upside move has now materialized!
We saw Industrial Metals -- including Copper, Steel, and Aluminum -- continue to follow-through as they grind higher.
But this week’s biggest moves came from the Agricultural Commodities.
Let’s take a look at the recent strength in Ags using our custom ASC Equally-weighted Agriculture Index.
Over the past month, we've seen agricultural commodities catch a bid as they break out of overhead supply zones and long-term consolidations.
We're tracking some commodities that have been witnessing a sharp move and demand to be noticed. So let's dive right in!
Mustard has been on our radar for some time and a fierce move has come through over the last ten days. The price has absorbed all overhead supply and is zooming away as we speak. The price has been in a sideways trading range for more than seven months and is now on the move. The indicator is in bullish momentum territory, looking good for a move towards 7,900.
We are bullish above the level of 6,200 with a target near 7,900.
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
In recent weeks, we've seen some rotation back into Large and Mega-Caps, which has propelled the major indices to new highs, while SMIDs are still resiliently consolidating. While the list of negative data points has grown, it's still not close to anything that warrants concern.
Last night I popped into BNN Bloomberg to talk about what's going on in the market.
We're seeing new highs across a lot of major indexes, but what's happening underneath the surface?
We've been seeing the price of lumber soaring along with things like Steel and Rebar futures. It's the whole demand/building/growth theme that continues to stand out.
One thing that's definitely worth watching is the All Country World Index Ex-U.S., which is basically a snapshot of what the rest of the world looks like. And you'll notice that the index ETF $ACWX is stuck right between its 2008 highs and 2018 highs.
This puts the global stock market in quite a predicament. If you're bullish equities, you're going to want to see a breakout through those historic 2008 highs. If you're bearish equities, this is one you want to see break back below those 2018 highs.
In a market environment where Financials and Natural Resources have become leadership groups, how do we not have a conversation about Canada? Taking that one step further, we need to talk about how any investor, whether living in Canada or not, can take advantage of a potential structural swing in the trend for Canadian Equities.
