From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Crude Oil has been the Lone Ranger within the energy complex since early June, relentlessly pushing to new highs while other energy-related commodities have been stuck below overhead supply.
But that’s all changing this week as Heating Oil and Gasoline just broke above key resistance levels to new multi-year highs.
The recent strength from Energy also comes as Base Metals continue to cool off and correct. Copper, Tin, and Aluminum are all rangebound below logical levels of resistance after explosive moves off their 2020 lows. This is yet further evidence of the bifurcated market environment we're in right now. All we can do is focus on finding opportunities in areas that are trending... So, let's talk more about Energy.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Earlier in the week, we held our June Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting 5 of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.
Responses were mixed but skewed in the bearish direction.
The point of our exercise was to question whether buyers would have the power to push prices back above our risk level… or if sellers would follow-through and validate the pattern breakdown.
If the former was to be true, we’d have a “bull-hook” formation on our hands. Some might call it a “bear-trap”. Either way, it’s bullish.
But that’s not what has happened at all. Since our mystery post, sellers have taken control as prices continued to collapse lower.
We’re now looking at a decisive violation of our risk level. Let’s dive in to see what’s really going on and discuss why this chart is so important!
Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Whether you trade commodities or not, it’s been impossible to ignore the recent sell-off in Lumber, as prices have collapsed almost 30% in just the last month.
Well, let’s just say we got a lot more than that! Sometimes markets correct or consolidate through time, and sometimes they correct through price.
And Lumber is most definitely correcting through price!
But Lumber is not the only procyclical commodity to enter a corrective phase. More recently, DR. Copper has begun to digest its recent gains through price as well.
These corrections have already done some damage to the primary uptrends at play as both of these economically sensitive commodities have recently violated critical support levels.
Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Softs are an area of the commodity space that hasn’t received much attention over the past several months, and for good reason.
As the rest of the commodities complex has been on fire, the action from this group has been muted as they’ve underperformed their peers significantly since last year.
Besides Sugar reaching our initial objective last month and Coffee breaking out of a 4-year bottom, Softs have been a real snooze fest.
Cotton continues to chop within a broad range. Cocoa is well below overhead supply. And OJ grinds sideways as it builds a 3-year base.
But it looks like Orange Juice futures are poised to break free to the upside.
Let’s take a closer look at this favorable risk/reward opportunity in OJ and lay out a potential trade setup to get long this base breakout, if and when it comes...
Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.
Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
