Crude oil is breaking to multi-month highs. Copper is approaching the 4-dollar level. And Silver is ripping!
I’ll have more on the precious metals front Monday with your weekly Gold Rush.
Today, I’m focusing on the grain and livestock markets. The dropping dollar has helped line up a long list of fresh trade ideas: potential failed breakouts, possible failed breakdowns, and critical levels to trade against…
The most important crop report of the year has hit.
Yes, it’s generated quite the buzz over the past few weeks, as grain markets ripped higher in anticipation.
Some observers even speculated that Friday’s report was the most important in the history of the agrarian economy.
So let’s round down, be conservative, and call it the most important crop report in 5,000 years.
Seriously, though, it was a big deal, as acreage estimates for soybeans represent the largest miss since the report's inception – or, like, ever, in history.
More importantly for traders and investors, the report brought increased volatility.
If you’re like me and prefer to sit out these kinds of days, you’re patiently waiting for the dust to settle.
Meanwhile, if you’re at all put off by the volatility of these futures contracts, I have a vehicle that promises a much smoother ride…
Let’s talk about Archer Daniels Midland $ADM, “supermarket to the world.”
The $41B commodity behemoth has more than 100 years of experience in the grain markets.
A healthy rotation is underway across equity markets.
Leadership has swung toward cyclical value-oriented names over the trailing two weeks. Small-cap Energy, Materials, and Financials are outpacing the year-to-date top performers (Large-cap Tech). It’s a clear expansion in participation and a hallmark characteristic of any bull market.
But if cyclical stocks have a chance at participating over the long haul, we want to witness similar strength from corresponding commodity markets.
And we are…
Check out rebar futures posting a potential failed breakdown:
Our Equal-Weight 33 Commodity Index is printing fresh two-year lows. Crude oil is hanging around the lower bounds of a multi-month consolidation. And Dr. Copper is loitering below former support.
This isn’t bull market behavior.
But just as the stock market is a market of stocks, the commodity market is a market of, well, a diverse set of commodities.
So, while I don’t want to buy many high-profile procyclical contracts – and certainly not the commodity indexes – I do like the more obscure areas showing strength…
Areas such as uranium!
I outlined my case for uranium stocks at the start of the year. It was pretty simple: If gold and copper are printing fresh highs, peripheral areas likely enjoy a bid. That includes uranium.
Former resistance turns into potential support – and vice versa.
That’s Polarity 101. It’s a pattern found throughout the market. It doesn’t matter the asset class – Bitcoin or Berkshire. It’s simply human psychology at work.
These levels often mark missed opportunities. And, in the process, they create price memory that fuels increased activity. Traders and investors are driven to transact at these levels, highlighting supply and demand zones that act as support or resistance.
Why does this matter right now?
Because gold futures have sliced through near-term support, careening toward a level etched in the minds of goldbugs everywhere…
I’m talking about the 2011 highs!
Gold futures recently undercut a key level marked by the February pivot highs and last month’s pivot lows – a polarity zone.
Buyers were hammering a key retracement level from below. The way I learned it, "The more times a level is tested, the higher the likelihood it breaks."
Three months later…
The July contract is knocking on the door – again!
How polite.
Check out July cotton nearing the January 2022 closing high of 88.34:
Dr. Copper is limping into the close – on pace for its worst week since last November.
The risk-off tone that began earlier in the week is intensifying. Crude oil is turning lower. Gold is pulling back. And the equity indexes are drowning in a sea of red.
But nothing stings stock market bulls quite as badly as the breakdown in copper futures…
Copper just undercut a key polarity zone marked by the August 2022 pivot highs.
Live cattle posted a new all-time high last month. Precious metals are gearing up for a potential rip-roaring rally, as gold retested all-time highs yesterday. And sugar futures refuse to quit.
But when I review my commodity charts, I notice more topping formations underway than bottoming patterns.
Crude oil is front and center as the energy space – commodities and stocks – remains one of the weakest areas of the market.
That’s why yesterday’s action in crude has my full attention…
The increased selling pressure across grain markets might not be on your radar.
But pay close attention: The soybean complex, corn, and wheat are edging toward their respective year-to-date lows as demand wanes.
Even if you don’t trade these ag contracts, fresh multi-month lows – especially in wheat – carry broad implications for equities and cyclical assets. (Hint: It has to do with crude oil.)
That’s why I’m on high alert for a potential breakdown in Chicago wheat…
Wheat has been in a strong downtrend since its March 2022 peak, entering a bearish momentum regime last summer.
