From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I want to share with you a trade idea I wouldn’t have considered a year ago.

I balked at first. This trade’s simply not in my wheelhouse. But I’ve learned so much here at All Star Charts over the past three years.

And "to be open-minded" has been one of the most impactful lessons. 

Now, this setup has my full attention. Risk is well-defined, and the upside potential is heavily skewed in our favor.

I can see the spin on the pitch.

I’m talking about natural gas…

Before I lay out the levels, let’s step back and look at the big picture.

Natural gas stocks, represented by the Natural Gas ETF $FCG, haven't experienced the same extreme sell-off as natural gas futures $NGF:

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

Since I've been under the weather this week, I wanted to share three of my favorite charts from the entire FICC space heading into the weekend.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Forget about what Powell said or whatever you heard on the street. 

We’re still looking for risk assets to buy.

That includes stocks and commodities. Despite the dollar applying downside pressure to risk assets this morning, I want to share one commodity that looks ready to rip…

Check out the weekly chart of Cotton futures:

Cotton experienced a sharp decline last year following an impressive run-up off the 2020 lows. Fast forward to today, and it’s challenging a critical retracement level from below at approximately 89.

The bulls have hammered this level since October of last year. And the way I learned it… 

The more times a level is tested, the higher the likelihood it breaks.

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

I have to imagine Uranium stocks catch a bid if copper and gold are ripping higher.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Commodity prices remain elevated despite easing inflationary pressures.

It’s evident in the two overarching themes across the commodity space – resilience at the index level and relative strength from metals.

I’ve been vocal about both, urging readers not to fight DR. Copper while teasing the possibility of Gold reaching 5K. I’m serious about both!

Strength likely spills over into the periphery if we’re in an environment where gold and copper print fresh highs. 

That brings us to my favorite chart this week…

Check out the Uranium ETF $URA:

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

Every day we have the choice to either follow the news or follow trends. I choose the latter...

Check it out!

Inflation has peaked!

Or so I’ve been told… 

Rates are rolling over, undercutting their June highs from last year. High-yield debt, including emerging-market bonds, is catching a bid.

And major commodity indexes are on the verge of breaking down.

That all sounds logical to me.

But just because inflation might begin to ease doesn’t mean I’m taking a bearish stance on inflationary assets, especially commodities.

As crazy as that may seem,  these next four charts support my case…

Check out the long-term chart of gold futures overlaid with copper:

These metals are in the process of carving out decade-long bases.

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

As a responsible investor, I refuse to ignore strength. That includes stocks making fresh highs, especially when they're bellwethers!

Check it out!

As a responsible investor, I refuse to ignore strength. That includes stocks making fresh highs. 

Despite what you may have heard from the major cable networks, many stocks aren’t going down. In fact, many fit our definition of "strength."

Out of all the fresh highs coming in, these three bellwethers take the cake…

Freeport-McMoRan

We look at Freeport-McMoRan $FCX as a proxy for Dr. Copper. Both are economic barometers, and both are posting new multi-month highs:

This is a bullish development for global risk assets, including commodities and their related stocks.

As long as FCX trades above 40, our outlook is higher toward 62, with a target of 97 over longer timeframes.  

Newmont Corp.

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

The major commodity indexes look ready to roll despite sustained strength from precious metals.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The Bloomberg commodity index $BCOM is breaking down, approaching fresh 52-week lows.

Somehow Gold and Copper didn’t get the memo. They must be too busy printing new highs.

But when we review other major commodity indexes (including our own equal-weight index of 33 individual contracts), they look poised to roll over.

Check out the triple pane chart of the Bloomberg, CRB, and our equal-weight commodity indexes:

It’s interesting to note the differences between these indexes. The weighting structures vary, as do their support levels. But the CRB index and our equal-weight commodity index challenge their 2022 lows while the BCOM has undercut its respective lows. 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

So long, 2022. It’s been real.

With only a few trading hours left in the year, I’m ready to turn the page. I’m sure plenty of you can relate.

In the spirit of looking ahead to a bright and beautiful 2023, I want to share seven of my favorite commodity charts for January.

No grand thesis, just seven potential setups that have my attention heading into the new year.

1. Sugar

Sugar futures print a potential failed breakout after coiling within a tight range since the summer of 2021: The lack of upside follow-through accompanied by a bearish momentum divergence warrants caution.