This is the video recording of the August 2024 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

The price action from commodities has been lackluster, at best, this year. Our equal-weight commodity index is at its lowest level since early 2021.

Despite the broad weakness, gold continues to shine. The 79th element closed this week at its highest price in history.

Here’s a look at gold futures, trading at our first objective measured from the multi-decade base that resolved higher back in Q1:

As long as this breakout sticks, the bias remains higher for the yellow metal. 

On a more tactical note, gold has just completed a multi-month continuation pattern and is in the early stages of a fresh leg up:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Stocks aren’t the only risk assets falling this week.

Rebar, Corn, and Cotton are posting multi-year lows. Dr.Copper is slipping below four bucks. And our short cattle trades are working.  

But as most commodities slide, one area (aside from precious metals) is finding its feet.

Notice the CRB Index is carving out a two-year base while our equal-weight index hits its lowest level since early 2021:

The disparity between the two indexes comes down to their construction. 

We weigh 33 commodities equally for our index, so rebar futures carry the same weight as crude oil. 

On the other hand, crude comprises almost a quarter of the CRB Index.

These stark contrasts reveal two pertinent themes: broadening weakness among commodities and emerging relative strength from energy.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Aside from gold’s new all-time highs, commodities look rough.

Natty gas is falling below two bucks. Copper is retesting four. And corn is rolling to its lowest level since 2020.

But of all the vulnerable commodities contracts, only one area stands out as a viable short: cattle.

Feeder cattle futures closed below 250 this afternoon, triggering a sell signal:

Notice the 14-day RSI led price by registering a new multi-month low ahead of today’s breakdown. The waning momentum speaks to weakening demand and the possibility of a swift move lower.  

This is the video recording of our August 1st Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desks of Ian Culley @IanCulley and Sam Gatlin @Sam_Gatlin

It’s time to buy natty gas.

A bullish momentum swing is on the verge of flashing green. And seasonal tailwinds are due to pick up as price pulls back. 

Plus, the dominant four-year cycle is approaching the next expansion phase.

Buckle up!

Check out the monthly natty gas chart with a MAC-D momentum indicator in the lower pane:

The monthly MAC-D is nearing a bullish crossover at extreme oversold conditions. This long-term momentum setup occurs after cyclical lows, marking critical inflection points in 2012, 2016, and 2020.  

Also, all three previous natty gas cycles hit bottom in the spring and ripped higher toward the end of summer – the start of the best three months of the year (August- October).

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Risk assets are taking a hit.

The major equity indexes are seeing red. Crude oil is slipping below eighty bucks. And gold is failing at new all-time highs.

Perhaps the markets are navigating the summertime blues – a tune base and industrial metal investors have been humming for months.

Remember copper’s failed breakout in May:

Oof!

Dr. Copper is living up to the trading adage that from failed moves come fast moves in the opposite direction.

The futures continue to fall – down almost 8 percent this week. 

Meanwhile, track the 4.16 level for potential support:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Today’s analyst meeting was one broken record after another as we ripped through the most important charts on the market.

Not a top, never hit oversold…

Not a top, never hit oversold…

There’s a raging bull market on Wall Street right now. 

But the fun and games will come to a screeching halt if the following chart rolls over.

Check out the economically sensitive Home Construction ETF $ITB:

ITB checks both boxes.  It never hit oversold levels and is only a top if it breaks below 97. 

Plus, it’s ripping! 

Of course, we need a decisive resolution above the March high of 116.34 to confirm our bullish bias. 

But if the next bull run has legs, ITB will post new all-time highs. 

That also means lumber futures have to stop falling.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our July Monthly Strategy Session last week. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Forget about the selloff in Bitcoin for a minute.

Coal stocks are ripping!

Perhaps they’re giving back some recent gains today, but most stocks are.

More importantly, Monday marked the largest one-day rate-of-change for our Coal Index since 2020…

If you’re wondering why we created an index of coal stocks, the answer is simple: The December 2020 delisting of the VanEck Vectors Coal ETF $KOL forced our hand.

They shut down the only coal ETF just as commodities began ripping (many toward new all-time highs). You can’t make this stuff up… 

One of our favorite names – Alpha Metallurgical Resources $AMR – has gained over 4,000% off the December 2020 lows. Unbelievable!

Almost four years later, the rally isn’t over for these names. 

Our coal index is on the verge of kicking off the next leg higher:

Bitcoin is celebrating American Independence day by falling over $3000 in overnight trading.

That's over a 20% correction in less than a month.

Last night was the big LIVE Event that I host at the beginning of every month.

There is no better way to start a new month, and in this case a new quarter, than going one by one and identifying the direction of primary trends for the world's most important stocks and assets.

Just for perspective, here are the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 Quarterly Candlesticks making new all-time highs, again.

As you can see, these are the types of things you tend to see in bull markets. You do NOT see them in bear markets.