We never actually know that we've been in a bull market until well after the bottom.

It's easy to look back and pinpoint the March 2020 low or the March 2009 low, for example, and say, "That's when the bear market ended and a new bull market started".

But in real time, when we're going through that transition, how can we possibly know?

Well, classic signs of the end of the bear markets are things like historically bearish sentiment extremes and washout breadth levels.

We obviously had both of those as our sentiment readings this summer were the most pessimistic since the Great Financial Crisis, and only 14% of stocks on the NYSE were in uptrends (compared to almost 90% entering 2021).

Those are the things you see just before the market turns.

Now, what are the things you see just after a market turn, around the 2nd inning or so?

Momentum thrusts.

Relentless buying pressure coming off historic selling. And that's precisely what we've been seeing over the past month.

Monday night we held our August Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.

Let’s get right into it!

This is the video recording of the August 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

Why do people use the 200 day moving average?

The real answer is because a lot of charting software packages the past few decades have set it as a default.

But you also hear guys like Paul Tudor Jones talk about how below a 200 day moving average, you get out. In other words, bad things happen below the 200 day.

For me, I have reasons for doing everything. And while I understand that there are more like 252 trading days in a year, not 200, I still believe that if a stock is below its 200 day simple moving average, it's probably not in an uptrend.

This is specifically for my personal definition of an intermediate-term timeframe. I like to look out weeks and months, not years, and certainly not hours or days.

200 days is a good number for me. And while it's not perfect (hint: nothing is) looking at the percentage of stocks above their 200 day has historically given us some great washout signals.

This is the video recording of our August 1st Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

One thing we know about markets is that breadth thrusts tend to cluster together near the beginning of new bull markets.

Breadth thrusts are NOT signs of exhaustion. They are evidence of new trends emerging.

Now, after a few days of strength in stocks and crypto, investors are wondering: Was that a thrust?

Well, almost. But it's not quite there yet.

Here's one that's close. We're looking at the % of stocks in the S&P500 making new 20 day highs.

We saw over 40% of stocks hit new 20 day highs this week. We're looking for 55% to categorize this one as a true breadth thrust:

This is our ASC Research Q3 2022 Playbook.

Investors have a lot of questions right now. With sentiment and at some of the most pessimistic levels in history, what will it take for some of these trends to change in the second half of the year? I believe some major trends are already changing.

The Playbook takes a step back and looks at things from a more Structural perspective. If you're specifically looking for more tactical opportunities, you can check out this week's Live Mid-Month Conference Call.

Here's what we'll be discussing in our Q3 Playbook:

• Stocks (International & U.S.)
• U.S. Sectors & Industries
• Market Breadth & Sentiment
• Commodities
• Currencies
• Intermarket Analysis
• Cryptocurrencies
• New Trade Ideas
• Overall Strategy

This is the video recording of the July 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

• 34 Straight Weeks Of More New Lows Than New Highs
• Strong Negative Correlation between Stocks & Dollars
• DJIA & DJTA holding short-term support so far
• S&P500 Remains Below overhead supply
• Small-caps & Financials testing significant support levels
• Europe's STOXX 600 back to 2000/2007 highs
• Apple hits new All-time Relative Highs
• US 10yr & 30yr Yields run into 2018 highs
• Breakevens & EW Commodities peaked months ago before Yields
• Still no expansion in the new 20 day highs or 63 highs lists
• Commercial Hedgers remain historically long Crude Oil
• Gold, Silver & Gold Miners break down to new 52-week lows
• 10yr Minus 3-mo Yield Curve breaks down to follow 2s-10s
• Bitcoin & Ethereum hold above former cycle peaks
• New Trade Ideas: Both Long & Short

In bull markets you'll see a lot more stocks making new highs than new lows.

In the current market environment we're used to seeing the opposite.

Here's an update on how that's going. For those of you keeping track at home, we're now going on 34 consecutive weeks of more stocks making new lows than new highs: