How quickly people forget what a beast Amazon has been for years. All it took was an 18-month consolidation for investors to fall out of love with one of the greatest stocks in American history.
The bet the bears are making is that Amazon has been lagging and dragging down the Consumer Discretionary sector, considering it's 22% weighting in the index $XLY. So if you believe this is a big market top, I understand why you would think Discretionaries are setting up for a big fall. I totally get that.
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I discuss the less talked about tenets of Dow Theory. Everyone always likes to talk about the Dow Jones Industrial Average either confirming or diverging from the Dow Jones Transportation Average. But what gets forgotten is that there are many more tenets like Closing Prices are the most important, Identifying the direction of the Primary Trends and The Market Discounting Everything. Check out JC's 5 Most Important Dow Theory Tenets
This day and age we have other areas just as important, or even more important, than a group of Railroads, like what Charlie had when he first wrote down his Tenets in the late 1800s. Today we also compare the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the Semiconductor and Homebuilders Indexes as well as incorporate a series of ratios with Consumer Staples and Financials. It's more of an "and" than an "or" for us when it comes to Dow Theory.
Over the weekend I was running our "Weekend Momentum Report" for Institutional Clients and the message was very similar to last week, so I thought it was worth sharing.
Are you guys noticing how the new 52-week high list keeps getting longer, and not shorter?
I can't emphasize enough how the lies about weak market breadth have been just that: Lies, or myths, or whatever words you need to use that won't offend people. I stopped caring about that sort of thing a long time ago and just tell it like it is (someone has to). I'm just not seeing the weak breadth scenario playing out like they keep telling me. It's actually been quite the opposite. We've been seeing expansion in participation for months. So this is really nothing new.
The Value Line Index has been a helpful barometer of US Stock Market strength in the past, and today is no different.
If you weren't too busy reading reports of upcoming recessions, you may have noticed that the MSCI World Index broke out to new all-time highs this month. The award for best ETF Ticker goes to the good folks at iShares: $URTH
After a 21-month bear market, the planet Earth is now starting a new leg higher. I continue to believe very strongly that if stocks are above last year's highs, it is incredibly irresponsible not to be aggressively long.
The Nifty Public Sector Bank and Media sectors of the market have been laggards for a while, but we're now beginning to see signs that rotation into these areas is ahead.
