At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
The weight of the evidence continues to overwhelmingly lie in favor of the bulls.
The major indices are above important levels and are well on their way to achieving our targets. We're seeing sector rotation into offensive, cyclical areas of the market, and away from defensive, which is all confirming these new highs.
Commodities are showing incredible strength in the face of extreme positioning, reflecting the control buyers have in these markets.
And interest rates have claimed an important level, supporting the rotation into risk assets.
Let’s jump right into this week’s report with our US index table.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We continue to pound the table on leadership down the market-cap scale. There's been strong evidence over the past few weeks/months suggesting this is a structural trend reversal in the large vs small-cap ratio.
Many key indexes - both large and small, sit at crucial inflection points. Many of the small and mid-cap indexes are also extended and sporting extreme momentum readings, making for a logical level for sellers to step in.
It would be a healthy development for SMIDs to take a breather here and pass the baton back to large-caps for a bit.
We had over 250 charts in our internal chartbook, but cut it down to about half of that so it's not a marathon to get through.
We cover breadth indicators from percent overbought/oversold to new highs and lows, A/D lines, and more. We do this for all the major averages as well as sector indexes.
After digging through all these charts, we'd be remiss not to share some of our favorites with you. We'll go over some in this post.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
In last week's report, we discussed the continued rotation into SMIDS, international markets, and risk assets. Our conclusion is and continues to be that the market remains in a very healthy state of order.
FICC markets are also confirming the move higher in equities.
From a short-term perspective, SMIDS digesting their recent gains would be a healthy development.
While we have yet to see that play out, our long-term outlook continues to favor Growth-oriented stocks down the market-cap scale as a way to express our bullish thesis.
We've been pointing out historic breadth readings since this summer. We've actually seen a handful of extreme readings that typically occur at major market lows and the early stages of new secular bull markets.
We've seen them across most major indexes as well, even Small and Mid-Caps.
Last week’s Mystery Chart featured an ominous rounding top, complete with price violating key lows as it aggressively collapsed.
Today, we’re going to turn that frown upside down. It actually wasn’t a rounding top at all.
We inverted the chart, as we often do, in an effort to make some of you out there aware of any bullish or bearish biases you may have.
In other words, if you were buying this chart (which most of you were NOT), you are really a seller. And if you’re a “seller” who only bought the Mystery Chart because you have a bullish bias, you might now be wondering why you would ever bet against such a nice base.
When we flip this chart around, you can now see we’re looking at a massive base on Japan’s Nikkei 225.
In this post, we’ll check in on the Nikkei and see what market breadth is signaling about the internal strength of the Japanese stock market.