This week on Happy Hour with Traders, I brought together some of the best minds when it comes to stock market breadth. You see all the breadth charts on twitter and you always hear debate about whether market breadth is weakening or improving. I think this round table discussion clears up a lot of misconceptions about the subject. I think it also gave each of us new ideas about how to approach the market from a weight-of-the-evidence perspective. I know I definitely got some new ideas that I want to start to do some more work on.
This is why we have these conversions. I'm fortunate to have really smart friends around the world that all view markets in their own unique ways. So I'm going to try my best to show them off so you can learn from them too!
Here's the latest Happy Hour with special guests Andrew Thrasher, Willie Delwiche, Mike Hurley and Steve Strazza. Enjoy!
One of the reasons we've remained so bullish on Equities as an asset class is because of the continued expansion in the number of stocks participating to the upside.
In this week's "Chart Of The Week," we want to highlight a simple metric that can be used to identify the breath of the Indian stock market.
This is a behind the scenes video of our team meeting held on July 6, 2020 4PM ET.
Every quarter we put out our Playbook focusing on the most important themes around the world to take advantage of, and just as importantly, which areas to avoid. This is usually about 150 pages and really dives deep into stocks, rates, commodities, forex and the intermarket relationships between all of them.
I hope this gives you some perspective on how we approach markets using our Top/Down Approach. We've always found it helpful to understand where people are coming from and why they say certain things. I hope this can give you some of that context about us. I think it also helps you get to know our team a little better. Enjoy!
Welcome to my new Monthly show that I'm doing with my friend Josh Brown. He is one of the most widely followed Financial Advisors in the country, and someone who I've been arguing with about markets for the better part of 2 decades.
Every month I'll bring a handful of the the most important Monthly charts that stood out during my review. In our first episode, I wanted to discuss the S&P500 making new all-time highs, Transports leading the way in July, Rates hitting new all-time lows and Bitcoin starting a new breakout.
This is the chart that I think tells the July story best. The further to the left the asset is, the closer it is to a new a 52 week high. The higher up the asset, the better its performance in July. Notice Transports in the upper right: Relative weakness overall, BUT the best performer this month, followed by Emerging Markets, Gold and base metals. The lonely US Dollar down below stands out doesn't it?
As we head into the second half of the calendar year 2020, we start from scratch with our Q2 playbook and outline our thoughts on every asset class and our plan to profit in the quarter ahead.
Part 1 of this playbook will cover our macro view, touching on Equities, Commodities, Currencies, and Rates.
Part 2 of this playbook will delve deeper into Indian Equities, going sector by sector to identify the trends that matter.
Part 3 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be selling within the context of today's environment.
Part 4 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be buying within the context of today's environment.
As we head into the second half of the calendar year 2020, we start from scratch with our Q2 playbook and outline our thoughts on every asset class and our plan to profit in the quarter ahead.
Part 1 of this playbook will cover our macro view, touching on Equities, Commodities, Currencies, and Rates.
Part 2 of this playbook will delve deeper into Indian Equities, going sector by sector to identify the trends that matter.
Part 3 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be selling within the context of today's environment.
Part 4 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be buying within the context of today's environment.
As we head into the second half of the calendar year 2020, we start from scratch with our Q2 playbook and outline our thoughts on every asset class and our plan to profit in the quarter ahead.
Part 1 of this playbook will cover our macro view, touching on Equities, Commodities, Currencies, and Rates.
Part 2 of this playbook will delve deeper into Indian Equities, going sector by sector to identify the trends that matter.
Part 3 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be selling within the context of today's environment.
Part 4 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be buying within the context of today's environment.
As we head into the second half of the calendar year 2020, we start from scratch with our Q2 playbook and outline our thoughts on every asset class and our plan to profit in the quarter ahead.
Part 1 of this playbook will cover our macro view, touching on Equities, Commodities, Currencies, and Rates.
Part 2 of this playbook will delve deeper into Indian Equities, going sector by sector to identify the trends that matter.
Part 3 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be selling within the context of today's environment.
Part 4 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be buying within the context of today's environment.
What's with all this talk about weak breadth lately?
A lot of market participants have been pointing out the divergences or lower highs in popular breadth indicators such as the percent of S&P 500 stocks at new 52-week highs or the percent above their 200-day moving average.
In many cases, these actually aren't divergences at all as the S&P is yet to make a new year-to-date high itself.
Just like we look at different breadth indicators to identify market tops than the ones we look at to signal bottoms, we should use different items in our breadth toolkit depending on the market environment we're in.
Using the current rally as an example, it makes little sense to give weight to the percent of stocks making new 52-week highs considering most indexes and sectors haven't been able to achieve the same.
