This is the video recording of our November 1st Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s beginning to feel an awful lot like 2022.

Rates and the dollar are on pause, bonds can’t stop falling, and the major equity indexes are violating critical support levels.

But the 2s10s spread raised serious questions this week as it hit fresh 52-week highs. 

So, is the market environment changing?

Let’s find out…

Check out the 2s10s spread challenging zero from below:

An inverted yield curve (widely measured by the 2s10s and 3mo.-10yr. spreads) has cast a pall over capital markets, promising an economic recession for over a year. Yet the US economy remains strong.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Monday night we held our September Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.

Let’s get right into it!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Investors navigate a market of stocks, not a “stock market.”

Equity indexes slide, and US treasuries collapse against a rapid rise in interest rates. Unfortunately for the bulls, the charts show no signs of an imminent change in these underlying trends. 

That’s the environment, and there’s no use fighting it.

Have no fear: We can still lean into market areas that enjoy a rising rate environment, mainly energy.

Here’s the US 30-year yield breaking to its highest level since the summer of ‘07:

Rising rates are the market’s golden thread.

Owning the stock market averages will prove difficult as long as yields press higher.

Gold has leaned sideways to lower lately.

The US dollar and interest rates continue to rise, creating unfavorable conditions for the yellow metal and its crazy cousin, silver.

As long as those trends remain intact, precious metals will struggle. And they have... until very recently.

Regardless of the broader intermarket landscape, I can't ignore near-term strength for these shiny rocks...

This is the video recording of the October 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Borrowing costs are increasing, and US Treasuries are tanking – again. 

Everyone knows it. Even my therapist commented on interest rates and the “terrible” economy.

The 30-year T-bond has hit our initial target. And the 10-year is within striking distance. 

So much for limited downside risk for the bond market. Perhaps the call for a 5.25 print on the 10-year yield by Christmas wasn’t aggressive at all.

But elevated yields aren’t the problem…

And I don’t care about the economy when it comes to market speculation.

Remember, we don’t trade the economy. We trade the markets or – more precisely – price.

Interest rates hung around decade highs earlier this year while the Nasdaq 100 enjoyed its best first half since its inception.

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

Rising rates have been a worldwide phenomenon for the last two and a half years as yields have climbed non-stop.

Not only are we seeing the curve in the US reach decade-long highs, but the benchmark yields in Germany, France, Spain, and even Japan are also trading at multi-year highs.

Below is the US 10-year Yield reaching its highest level since 2007 after breaking out of a multi-month base three weeks ago.

This is the video recording of our October 3rd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Stocks and bonds look vulnerable right now. 

US T-bonds are sliding to fresh decade lows. The S&P 500 completed a three-month top last week.  And the Nasdaq 100 is on the verge of doing the same. 

Those summer highs are receding into the collective memory bank, replaced by new lows and growing unease. Sellers are out in full force.

But instead of allowing the near-term selling pressure and overall choppy conditions to throw us off balance, let’s focus on the one underlying trend tying this market together…

Rising interest rates!

Check out the commodity-bond ratio overlaid with US 30-year yield $TYX:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Monday night we held our September Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.

Let’s get right into it!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Searching for trending markets?

Look no further than US treasury bonds!

Bonds across the curve are skidding to fresh contract lows as interest rates have a one-track mind…

Higher!

Check out the US 10-year yield posting fresh sixteen-year highs:

Not to be outdone, the 2-year yield just registered its highest level in seventeen years.

Interest rates across the curve are breaking to decade-plus highs in what has become a foot race.

It’s clear that the rising rate environment remains alive and well. An inverted yield curve keeps score, reminding us that shorter-duration yields are winning. 

But I honestly don’t care what area of the curve is leading.