From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

Bonds are off to their worst start in the past 40 years, possibly ever! 

It’s not even close. 

As we near the end of Q2, the US Treasury Bond ETF $TLT is down almost 22% year to date. And that’s after its recent bounce higher.

There's been nowhere to hide, as these traditional safe-haven assets have been an absolute dumpster fire along with stocks.

But we’re starting to see some of those flames extinguished.

Some of the worst-performing stocks tipped the bond market’s hand ahead of the recent lows. That’s right: Those Big Tech names and Chinese internet stocks stopped going down months ago and now bonds are following higher.

Believe it or not, bonds and high-duration equities have a lot in common. The Growth $IWF versus Value $IWD ratio really tells the story.

Let’s take a look.

Here’s an overlay chart of the TLT and the IWF/IWD ratio:

This is the video recording of the June 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

• The S&P500 and Dow Jones Composite stuck below overhead supply
• Major US Indexes are below their AVWAPs from the COVID lows
• 30 consecutive weeks of more stocks making new lows than new highs
• Seasonality could become a tailwind in July
• Sentiment is as bad for stocks as I've ever seen
• Relative strength out of Chinese Internet and other "culprits"
• Bitcoin near important support
• The US Dollar controls all of this. All eyes on DXY
• Breadth Deterioration in Commodities
• Long opportunities in Financials
• Defensive Sectors are vulnerable
• Gold is still below overhead supply
• Copper/Gold ratio breaking down pointing to lower rates
• Japanese Yen hits new multi-decade lows
• Buy the dip in bonds? I think so

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

Now that inflation is no longer transitory and we’ve officially entered bear market territory, "recession" is the next buzzword on deck.

And don’t worry: Plenty of banter surrounding the yield curve will take center stage during all this recession talk. 

Somehow, an inverted yield curve has become synonymous with recession even though the historical record supporting this narrative leaves room for plenty of interpretation. 

The purpose of this post is not to present an argument on whether we’re already in a recession or if one is imminent. We’ll leave that up to the talking heads and economists.

Instead, we'll simply share where the yield curve is today and assess the likelihood of potential inversion.

Let’s take a look…

Here’s a triple-pane chart of the US 30-year, 10-year, and 5-year yields:

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

The Japanese yen continues to be front and center, as the safe-haven currency can't seem to find its footing.

In a market where risk assets are struggling to catch any sort of sustained bid, finding investment opportunities in yen has been a great strategy. It continues to work.

Long USD/JPY has been one of the best trades on the sheets this year – by far! And it looks to be continuing its upward trajectory, as it hit fresh 20-year highs earlier this week.

Aside from providing a stellar trading opportunity, the current intermarket relationship between this forex cross and the bond market may reveal the near-term direction of the US 10-year yield.

Let’s take a look.

Here’s an overlay chart of the USD/JPY pair and the US 10-year yield with a 26-day correlation study in the lower pane:

This is the video recording of our June 2nd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

Back in January, the big story was the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note printing new multi-year highs.

At the time, other benchmark yields worldwide were also resolving higher, completing large bases.

This was confirming evidence that added to our conviction US yields were headed higher and that we were in the early stages of a rising rate environment.

The confirmation from global yields proved valuable information.

Almost six months later, the US benchmark is just below 3.00%. As it pauses below a critical level, we again turn to overseas rates to get a read on the potential near-term direction of the 10-year yield.

And just like earlier in the year, they’re pointing higher.

Let’s take a look.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley    

When it comes to the bond market, credit spreads are always top of mind. They provide critical information regarding the liquidity and stress of the largest markets in the world.

While most of us aren’t full-time bond traders, in many cases we turn to these assets to offset the risk associated with the equity side of our portfolios. That’s fine.

But when credit markets come under stress, it affects all asset classes, especially equities. We’re seeing this now.

Earlier in the month, we noted that these crucial spreads were widening to their highest level since late 2020 as the high-yield bond versus Treasury ratio $HYG/$IEI hit new 52-week lows. 

It’s no coincidence that the major stock market averages fell to their lowest level in over a year as this was happening.

This is why we pay close attention to credit spreads. They give us information about the health of other risk assets.

This is the video recording of the May 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

• The average stock down 30-45% depending on the exchange
• Most consecutive weeks of more new lows than new highs since 2008
• How will US Dollar near former highs impact stocks
• Energy Stocks & Commodities at a Critical Juncture
• Major Bond Futures Contracts at Key Support: 2s, 5, 10s & 30s
• Consumer Discretionary the worst performing sector
• New Short Ideas in Growth
• Stocks Showing Relative Strength bucking the trend
• International weakness - stocks are below overhead supply
• Commercial Hedgers continue to buy Energy Futures
• Precious metals underperforming stocks and commodities
• Chilean Lithium continues to shine
• Agriculture stocks and commodities still trending higher
• A look into some recent insider transactions
• Crypto at key support levels, similar to the bond market

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Bonds are digging in at some familiar levels.

For years now, we’ve pounded the table about the importance of the 2018 highs for various risk assets.

That’s because those former highs marked significant peaks for both the stock market and certain procyclical commodities and currencies during the last cycle.

As far as the bond market is concerned, 2018 was also when yields peaked. Benchmark rates in the US are testing these old highs.

As such, it’s not the 2018 highs but the 2018 lows that we’re paying attention to when analyzing the prices of Treasuries.

A handful of bonds and bond funds are trying to find a bottom at these key former lows right now. 

Let’s take a look.

Here’s a chart of the 20+yr T-Bond ETF $TLT: