Intermarket Analysis is a fantastic tool that is available to us as technicians regardless of our time horizon. Certain gauges of risk appetite, or risk aversion, can be seen simultaneously throughout various asset classes. We use these correlations as confirmations or divergences from data we're getting elsewhere. Today I want to focus on the direction of the U.S. Interest Rate Market and compare it to the data we're getting from Regional Bank Stocks and Real Estate Investment Trusts. The relationship between Banks and REITs is similar to the tug of war going on between investors in the Bond Market.
Technical Analysis is the study of the behavior of the market and market participants. We try and identify the direction of the primary trend and invest accordingly. As Technicians we can apply our price-focused approach to any market, whether it's stocks, commodities, currencies or even Bitcoin. If it is liquid and driven by the supply and demand dynamics in that particular market, then applying our methods of price analysis makes perfect sense and it works very well.
I jumped on board the Bitcoin train last year and added it to my Research Platform. Our clients really enjoy it, whether they are actively trading it or just interested in the product. To be honest, one of the biggest reasons why I decided to start including it in my weekly analysis is because I saw an opportunity to profit from this market. At the end of the day, isn't that why all of us are looking at these charts in the first place, Bitcoin or otherwise?
For me it's not just about buying a group of stocks, but about buying the strongest members of that group. I am a firm believer that by erring on the long side of relative strength or erring on the short side of relative weakness, the odds of a continuation in trend is much greater than the odds of a reversal. Therefore, there is a higher probability of success by following trend, rather than trying to fight trends. So today I want to talk about how we're going to take this top/down approach and apply it to find profitable trades this month in Energy stocks.
Hey guys, I could really use your help with this. I'm trying to a consensus answer on the list of the 10 most important liquid assets on earth. I've given this a lot of thought and have come up with mine. But I want to know what you think. I'll post the poll results at the end of the week. Here is my list in no particular order:
I'm lucky that I get a chance to read a lot and converse with really smart market participants all the time. So there are many lessons that I've gotten to learn the easy way, from my predecessors and colleagues. But there are some lessons that damn it you just need to learn on your own. For me one of those lessons was trading stocks near flat 200 day moving averages. And when I say "stock", this can refer to an ETF, Commodity Futures, Index, etc. But when they're near their directionless longer-term smoothing mechanism, you're begging for trouble. If you like headaches, trade stocks near flat 200 day moving averages.
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
Over the past 10 days I have been traveling throughout southeast Asia learning new strategies and perspectives from local traders and investors. I'm lucky that I truly love what I do and the evolution of my process is far from complete. Every day the world is getting smaller and more interconnected than ever. Although cultures my be very different, the human psyche is universal. Our emotions controlled by fear and greed can be seen everywhere from New York City, to St. Louis, MO to London, to Kuala Lumpur. The difference is simply the perspective from which each investor sees the world, and therefore the marketplace. Trying to get inside the mind of these investors has been a fascinating process and I firmly believe that it gives me a leg up over everyone else.
Today I wanted to talk about something that I've never really written about here before but I think is a really important point that I want to make sure I get across. I'm lucky that I get to chat with investors all over the world on a daily basis. Whether you are a professional investor with 30 years of experience, or a student in Hong Kong who just made his/her first trade, I am always willing to chat. Not only does this help me learn about different strategies, objectives and cultures, but also helps give me perspective from all sorts of different angles.
This weekend was one of the most amazing professional experiences of my life. I'm fortunate that I have friends who are really smart and willing to give up some of their time on a Saturday to share their knowledge and wisdom with investors all over the world. The turn out for Chart Summit exceeded all expectations and the feedback has been tremendous. This week, videos of all the presentations will be sent out to anyone and everyone who registered for the event www.chartsummit.com
When we look at stocks that continuously sell off when they hit a specific area, we call that “resistance”. But all that really means is that the market is suggesting there are more sellers than buyers near a given price. There is overhead supply of shares, for whatever the reason. We’re not interested in knowing why, we just want to know if there is resistance or not. In some cases, stocks will “break out” above that overhead resistance, proving to us mathematically that the overwhelming amount of sellers at that given area has now been absorbed by an overwhelming amount of buyers for the stock.
