Have you heard that story yet about how Amazon is destroying traditional retailers?
Let me ask you: Is this actually the case? Is this it for retailers? It's over?
Fortunately we have actual data that can help us answer this question. We're not making guesses based on estimates that will be revised 20 times over the next few quarters. As Technicians we know what is actually taking place between the buyers and sellers for these stocks. It's up to us to make the correct interpretations, of course, but that price data is the only reliable data in existence when it comes to retail stocks.
This is the infamous chart of the S&P Retail Index, which is equally weighted. So in this chart, Amazon does not represent a large percentage of the index. Each retail stock, about 94 of them, are weighted approximately the same across the board.
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
We've been bullish towards US and Global Stocks once again since May. I still think this is an environment where we need to be buying weakness in stocks, not selling strength. The weight of the evidence is still pointing to an increased amount of risk appetite, not risk aversion. What we're seeing in the bond market, however, is suggesting interest rates are still heading higher. The implications here for assets like Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and the US Dollar is also important to recognize.
I'll do my best to lay out my weight of the evidence conclusions and walk you step by step with how I got there! This month's Conference Call will be held on Wednesday July 19th at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details:
With Chemical Stocks breaking out to all-time highs, I can't think of a better time than now to do a deep dive analysis on what is going on in the space. You guys know how much I've liked the Chemicals for a while now. This has been a monster since early last year and then picked up again after last summer.
When we talk about the Materials Sector, Chemicals aren't exactly the first thing that might come to mind. But if you dig deep into the Materials space, it is clear that the Chemicals are the leadership sub-group within the broader sector. Today we're going to dive in and see what is really going on here.
Today we're going to focus on what is taking place specifically in the Consumer Discretionary space. This is one of the largest sectors in the S&P500 with respects to the number of components, but the differences between all of the stocks in the group really stand out. While we are seeing some strength in Online Retail and some of the Homebuilders, the Apparel and Traditional Retailer space look terrible. So we don't just want to be buying this sector blindly. I think we need to pick and choose our spots.
In this report I wanted to do a deeper dive into Consumer Discretionary to try and determine the direction of the next major moves and how to best take advantage of it:
For over a decade I lived in New York City and had the opportunity to eat and drink very well. It’s hard not to in that town. Throughout the years I had clients who invited me to great restaurants where we had amazing food and drank awesome wine. Many other times it’s been dinner with fellow market participants or family and friends. While I was easily able to appreciate the high-quality plates put in front of me, the wine that went with it was usually more of a mystery for me.
They would ask me, “JC do you like the wine?” And while I almost always did, I could never explain why. Yes, I liked it. Or no I didn't like it. That was the extent of my wine knowledge. Sure I’ve traveled to Bordeaux and Tuscany over the years but I still couldn't tell you why I liked or disliked a wine.
Taking time off regularly has been one of the most rewarding parts of my professional life. This is especially the case in recent years now that I've finally recognized its true value. Besides the obvious fun and relaxing parts about a vacation, it's more about the results of that experience that I'm most concerned with. A lot of us work very hard and we spend an inexplicable amount of time and energy trying to solve the always evolving puzzle that we call the stock market. It's easy for us to get lost in the madness. In fact, as humans, we're built to get lost in it. So it's important to recognize that this flaw exists within us so we may act accordingly to counter that trait as best we can.
This week was our monthly conference call for Premium Members. We discussed a lot of things, mostly surrounding the fact that stocks are in uptrends all over the world and we are seeing broadening participation among stocks in the United States. Sectors that had been left for dead the past 6 months like Industrials and Materials are now coming up on all of my momentum and relative strength screens. Healthcare and Utilities are also breaking out to new highs. It's not just one sector or a handful of stocks with some stupid acronym. This is a stock market rally that I believe is a lot younger than most people believe.
Today we are taking a look at the most important stock sector in the world: Financials. If Financials are leading the stock market higher, it's hard to be bearish equities as an asset class. The first thing we want to do is start from the top with Financials relative to the rest of the market as well as from a long-term perspective. Then we'll take a look at some breadth internals and the sub-sectors that fall within the larger spectrum of Financials, like Regional Banks and Insurance. Once we get structural perspective on Financials as a group, then we'll work our way down to the individual stock level. That's the top/down approach that we incorporate into every sector in the market and country around the world.
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
We've been bullish towards US and Global Stocks once again since last month. I still think this is an environment where we need to be buying weakness in stocks, not selling strength. The weight of the evidence is still pointing to an increased amount of risk appetite, not risk aversion. What we're seeing in the bond market, however, is suggesting interest rates are heading higher. The implications here for assets like Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and the US Dollar is also important to recognize.
I'll do my best to lay out my weight of the evidence conclusions and walk you step by step with how I got there! This month's Conference Call will be held on Monday June 19th at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details:
Earlier in 2017, I mentioned this was going to be an exciting year filled with new additions to AllStarCharts.com. I’m excited to announce one of the many today with the launching ofAll Star Charts EDU. This new addition is an educational section of the site dedicated to helping users grow their knowledge of technical analysis. With each one of these tools and principles, I also explain how I personally use it and how it helps me throughout my process. I think this will give you a better understanding as to how I approach the market and can also be used as a resource in the future.
