Every market environment is different. It's changing every day. What might give us insight into what's happening during one period of time in the market doesn't guarantee that it will help in the future, or ever again for that matter. Back in 2008-2009, correlations spiked all over the world and the US Dollar was moving in the exact opposite direction as the S&P500. Watching the Euro and more specifically the Euro/Yen was a huge advantage back them. I remember it like it was yesterday. But in today's environment, those negative correlations are no longer valid. It's a different market environment now. It's always different.
So while the EUR/JPY and the US Dollar Index were great tells for the direction of US Stocks in 2008, today we're looking at different indicators. Two that I'm particularly focused on right now are Germany and London. First of all, these are 2 of the most important indexes in the world. Top 3? Top 5? Either way, both of them are on the Mount Rushmore of Stock Market Indexes.
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
We've been bullish towards US and Global Stocks once again since May. I still think this is an environment where we need to be buying weakness in stocks, not selling strength. The weight of the evidence is still pointing to an increased amount of risk appetite, not risk aversion. I ran through all 1000 charts of the S&P500 stocks on both weekly and daily timeframes and there are more good ones than bad ones. A lot more good ones, in fact. It's hard for me to fight that.
It's the middle of the summer and everything is quiet. Even the slightest bit of volatility brings in the panic. It's pretty amazing to watch. There are two schools of thought here. First, the historic short positions in S&P500 Volatility Index Futures have their monthly unwind, and stocks get adjusted accordingly. It's a volatility trade unwinding causing these 1 or 2 day spikes. But then the shorts come back in, make money for a period of time and then get swept out again, like this week. The cycle repeats. Now we move on again and volatility shorts crush it for the rest of the summer. That's thesis 1.
The other scenario is that there is a lot more squeeze behind this one and stocks can have a much bigger and longer adjustment. Take a look at the C.O.T. Reports. The numbers are outrageous. These Volatility shorts are natural buyers of volatility. It's scary when you think about it. But regardless, they stay short. It is what it is. Stocks continue to shake them off. But is this time different?
One of the most classic characteristics of markets that are not trending higher is when momentum is getting oversold. Markets in uptrends don't get oversold. They get overbought! Think about it: How can an overwhelming amount of buyers possibly be a bad thing?
I understand there are some strategies that wait for oversold conditions in their indicators to trigger buying opportunities and other things like that. That's cool. But when I am referring to momentum, I am specifically describing a 14-period RSI. For today's discussion we'll focus more on 14-day RSI for this specific timeframe. If we were having a longer-term conversation, we would be looking at a 14-week RSI on a chart that goes back decades. Currently, the weekly chart is in a bullish range, so that is not in question. Today we're focused on the coming months and quarters.
Maybe this is the top for the S&P500. And maybe the Dolphins win the Super Bowl this year. And Maybe I'll have steak for dinner on Friday.
The best part about this business is that none of us know what's going to happen tomorrow. It doesn't matter what you've accomplished until now. We're all trying to win the same war moving forward. It's pretty cool when you think about it.
The smartest people I know consume the most content by reading books and listening to podcasts. That's just what it is. The common denominator among some of the least successful people I know is that they don't read books or listen to podcasts. They choose to spend that time watching the news. They read newspapers, magazines and things written by journalists, instead of actual professionals. I want to know what market participants are doing. I don't want some 26 year old with no investing experience deciding what is or isn't important to me. Let me hear it straight from the horse's mouth. That's why I like reading books and listening to podcasts produced by the actual market professionals themselves!
As much as I enjoy listening to the great podcasts that are already out there, like Barry's Masters in Business and Patrick's Investors Field Guide, us Technicians don't have one of our own. I think it's about time we change that....
This week I invited everyone to a free webinar where I walked through my process to find only the most favorable risk vs reward opportunities. The point of this exercise was not just to make a list of hot stocks. Our purpose here is to do the homework, create the framework for the current market environment, and then decide how to best take advantage of the most important themes. This process and idea generation is a weekly thing for me and includes stocks, commodities, currencies and interest rate markets all over the world.
We had a great showing at the live webinar with representatives from all over the world. It's amazing how much interest there is globally for technical analysis. It's a beautiful thing to see.
We're in the middle of Summer and markets are quiet, almost too quiet. It's easy to overthink things this time of the year and get lost in noise that is mostly made up to fill space. There isn't much going on right now for market participants, so it can only be worse for people whose job it is to report on it. Headlines that would normally fall to the bottom of the stack rise towards the top, just out of sheer necessity. The problem is they don't differentiate between what is important and what is just relatively important today because there's nothing else going on. That irresponsible behavior suggests to me that it is best to tune it all out completely. It's not worth it.
Have you heard that story yet about how Amazon is destroying traditional retailers?
Let me ask you: Is this actually the case? Is this it for retailers? It's over?
Fortunately we have actual data that can help us answer this question. We're not making guesses based on estimates that will be revised multiple times over the next few quarters. As Technicians we know what is actually taking place between the buyers and sellers for these stocks. It's up to us to make the correct interpretations, of course, but that price data is the only reliable data in existence when it comes to retail stocks.
This is the infamous chart of the S&P Retail Index, which is equally weighted. So remember that in this index, Amazon does not represent a large percentage of the overall weighting. Each retail stock, about 94 of them, are weighted approximately the same across the board.
