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Catching Ultraviolet Rays

November 8, 2024

We recently discussed the extreme demand for uranium stocks as the AI boom progresses.

But what about the other alternative energy equities?

Solar stocks have been amongst the most hated in the entire market, right up there with pot stocks and China.

The Invesco Solar ETF $TAN looks ready to explode higher:

 

The fund is a market-cap-weighted basket of solar stocks from all around the world.

One of our favorite long-term momentum indicators, the monthly percentage price oscillator (PPO), has been improving for months and is on the verge of triggering a buy signal.

In addition, TAN has carved out a short term reversal pattern. An upside resolution will coincide with a monthly PPO cross, and we want to look for opportunities to buy the best stocks in the industry.

On a relative basis, TAN is at a critical level of interest versus the S&P 500:

 

This level represents where it began to outperform the broader market in the past.

Adding to our conviction, the 14-week RSI has carved out...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 11/8/24

November 8, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in SMH today.
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. Exited  XLP, XHB, and XLV at profit targets.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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ASC Mastermind

ASC Mastermind Lab: Jeff Hirsch, The Master Of Seasonality

November 7, 2024

Below is the 8th ASC Mastermind Lab Course. These are special videos that will be made available throughout the duration of the 12-week course featuring conversations with professionals from across Wall Street discussing topics in their expertise. 

If you're going to talk about market seasonality, you might as well talk to the master. Jeff Hirsch is the editor and publisher of the Stock Trader's Almanac. His dad, Yale Hirsch, literally created the Almanac and is responsible for bringing the idea of market seasonality to the mainstream. 

There is no one that understands market seasonality better than Jeff. I have learned everything that I know on this topic from him. I hope you enjoy our conversation. 

 

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 11/7/24

November 7, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to XME position.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Most New Highs in 3 years

November 7, 2024

The market has spoken.

They either love Donald Trump as your President. Or maybe it's that they're just happy the election is over.

Either way, this consolidation has now resolved in the direction of the underlying trend: Up.

In fact, yesterday we saw the most amount of stocks on the NYSE hitting new 52-week highs that we've seen in years.

 

Breadth expansion is not evidence of deteriorating market participation. It's by definition, the exact opposite of that.

More and more stocks and sectors making new highs is something you historically see in bull markets. So this is perfectly normal.

Remember when they kept telling you that this was only a "bear market rally" because the small-cap indexes hadn't made a new high yet?

They were lying to you.

Besides, the S&P600 Small-cap Index just closed at a new all-time high yesterday. 

 

Imagine waiting for this index to make new highs before deciding to participate in this bull market?

There are serial killers out there who actually think this way. These people are sick in the head.

The much more reliable confirmation indicator, which dates back to...

All Star Options

[Options Premium] If We Get Rotation Here...

November 6, 2024

During our Analyst meeting this morning, I observed the relative "calm" in the Chinese Large Cap ETF $FXI and how, while down for the day, it is still holding in a range it's been in for over three weeks now. 

And we love how it's holding this range as a healthy consolidation from its late September breakout.

There's nothing about this chart that is bearish to me:

 

When I mentioned the relative bargain in long-dated call options in $FXI, JC said: "If we get rotation into China, this trade could make our year.

I agree.

Here's the Play:

I like buying $FXI January 2026 35-strike calls for approximately $3.00 per contract. This premium I pay today is the most I can lose in this trade and I'll size my position accordingly.

Meanwhile, I'm going to take an active roll in reducing my cost basis in this trade by selling nearer-term calls against it. This might not be for everyone (JC said he's not going to do it, for example).

Today, I'll also sell December 35 calls against this position for an approximately 52-cent credit. And I'll look to roll...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 11/6/24

November 6, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to KRE position.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
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[Bonus Gold Rush] Is This A Bubble?

November 6, 2024

We all know it has been a bull market, but how sustainable is it?

In today's Gold Rush video, we addressed the elephant in the room. Is this a bubble?

Additionally, we revisited some of the greatest bubbles of all-time and tied it back to the current environment.

One of our favorite historic bubble examples is silver in the late 1970s:

 

The Hunt brothers controlled around 1/2 of the world's supply of silver and sparked a 900% rally over the course of 2-years. Over the next few years, silver retraced the entire preceding move as it collapsed by 90%.

Finally, we discussed a few strategies for riding a bubble higher and profiting from all the madness.

Here's the video:

 

As always, let us know what you think.

All Star Charts Team

2 to 100 Club,
All Star Charts Premium

2 to 100 Club (11-06-2024)

November 6, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

Betting Markets Got it Right

November 6, 2024

As expected, Trump won by landslide. It was never even close. 

The public markets and the betting markets had it right. 

The pollsters either got it wrong or they just lied to you. But neither of those is acceptable.

I never trusted those weirdos anyway, because why would I?

The way I learned it was that it's not about what they say, but about what they do. Money talks. And the money was right again.

In this case, the market even underestimated the wide margin of victory in last night's election. And the markets have adjusted accordingly.

Dow Futures are up another 1200 points this morning, after putting up a 500 spot during yesterday's session. 

Bitcoin is up 5000 points to new all-time highs this morning

Tesla is up 12% and the Trump SPAC $DJT is up 30%.

So even through the betting markets got the President right, the Tradfi markets hadn't quite priced it all in yet, as we're seeing over the past 24 hours.

Here's the thing: None of us know what the market is going to do. That's the beauty of all this. We are working with incomplete information. And we know that going in. It's ok. 

But there...