As we close out 2015, one of the biggest stories of the year has to be the crash in Energy prices. The CRB Commodities Index is heavily weighted in Energy and, as an Index, has fallen over 20% this year now down almost 65% from its peak in 2008. Here is how I think we can profit from this in 2016: [Read more…]
BNN TV Appearance: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Apple & Inverted Yield Curves
This week I sat down with Frances Horodelski over at Business News Network to discuss the disastrous implications of a breakdown in the Dow Jones Industrial Average below last week’s lows. Apple continues to be a ‘sell on any strength’ stock and an inversion of the yield curve is likely to come next year.
Here is the video in full: [Read more…]
[Premium] Our Weekly Letter About The Current Market Environment
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- What We Need to See For Crude Oil To Bottom
- How High Yield (Junk) Bonds will Move in January
- What the Period of the Santa Claus Rally Really Means
- Is The U.S. Dollar Still a Short?
- How Crude Oil could affect Energy Stocks in the First Quarter
- What do we do with Uranium in 2016
Bloomberg TV Appearance: Stocks vs Bonds, Apple & Interest Rates
This week I had the opportunity to join Joe Weisenthal and Alix Steel on Bloomberg’s What’d You Miss? On this appearance I wanted to follow up on our Apple discussion over the Summer when I warned that a break of key support would lead to a much bigger problem. This is precisely what occurred in August and since then this stock has continued to be a sell on any strength. Looking bigger picture, Bonds keep outperforming stocks as they have for the last 2 years and still think this trade keeps working. We also touch on the yield curve where if 10s minus 2s break 1.20, then I think the next stop is an inversion of the yield curve.
Here is the video in full: [Read more…]
Edwards & Magee on Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Robert D. Edwards and John Magee is widely considered to be the Bible of Technical Analysis. Today I thought it would be a good idea to share with you guys Page 1 of Chapter 1, so you can see exactly what these guys were thinking when they first wrote the book in 1948.
Enjoy! [Read more…]
Dow Jones Industrial Average Flirts With Disaster
Since October 23rd, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been a place where we’ve wanted to stay away. This was the day that it first crossed above what was then, and still is, a flat 200 day simple moving average. When prices are anywhere near a flat 200 day, we want nothing to do with it. For almost 2 months now, this index has been stuck in a tight, yet volatile range, frustrating both the bulls and the bears along the way. But after the dust has settled, prices are exactly where they started on October 23rd. To me, it’s the perfect example of why we avoid these sort of situations. Who needs that headache?
The problem that I see moving forward [Read more…]
[Chart Of The Week] Stocks vs Bonds
One of the cool new things we’re doing here at All Star Charts is presenting everyone with a free Chart of the Week. This week’s Chart is the S&P500 Exchange Traded Fund $SPY compared to the Long-dated U.S. Treasury Bond Exchange Traded Fund $TLT:
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The Real Story In Interest Rates Has Nothing To Do With The Fed
The noise surrounding the U.S. Interest Rate Market has been all Fed all the time. For headlines and theory, that’s great. For market participants who live in the real world, we like to focus on what the market is actually doing, not what a group of economists may or may not be thinking 8 times a year.
The real story is not what the Federal Reserve is saying. The story is that the yield curve is and has been narrowing. In other words, the spread between long-dated Treasury bond yields and short-term yields has been getting smaller and smaller. Notice how 2-year yields are hitting 5.5-year highs this week, but 30-year yields won’t budge as they remain near the same levels from a year ago.
There are plenty of charts that tell this story well, but I think these two [Read more…]
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