My cousin wasn't asking me about crypto during this year's Thanksgiving feast.
Instead, he wanted to know which commodity to buy after the historic cocoa trade.
Without hesitation, I told him, "coffee."
And I really believe that!
Let's talk about why.
Our Soft Commodity Index is testing a critical level of interest:
The index peaked and rolled over in 2011 and has carved out a massive basing pattern in the years since then. If and when the bulls resolve this pattern, we want to be long.
On a relative basis, soft commodities are printing fresh 52-week highs versus the broader commodity complex. This is precisely what we're looking for in a leadership group, and we expect this outperformance to continue for the foreseeable future.
Cocoa futures recently resolved a 45-year base and put the bears in a dirt nap, and we think coffee futures are up next:
As you can see, coffee is at its highest level since it peaked in 1977, following a face-ripping 600% rally in two years.
A close above 340 would mark the end of a nearly 50-year consolidation and the beginning of a new uptrend.
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
Here’s this week’s list:
*Click table to enlarge view
We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.
How many people do you know have Chinese stocks as the biggest winner of the Trump landslide victory?
I don't anyone, and I talk to a lot of people.
Traders and Investors are simply NOT positioned for it.
They're all just assuming Trump is going to be bad for Chinese stocks, with tariffs and rocket beef and whatever else....
I think it's great. We're happy to take the other side of their (already priced in) pessimistic views.
Here is the CSI 300 Index, which is basically the S&P500 of China. Look at the double bottom, followed by the most violent momentum thrust in the history of Chinese equities, and now the consolidation post election.
Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday of the year. It's not even close.
So from the bottom of my heart, THANK YOU for all of your support over the years. You have no idea how much you mean to me and how appreciative we are for all the emails, comments, feedback and love that you gave us throughout 2024 and all of the years before that.
Seriously. Thank you.
Thanksgiving to me means Family, Friends, Football, Red Burgundy and Good Eats.
I know there are a few unfortunate souls out there who don't like Turkey. So if you're one of those, I can tell you for a fact, that it's only because you haven't had my Turkey yet!
You're invited next year.
I love Thanksgiving so much that we celebrate it at least one or two more times throughout the year, once in the Spring and probably one more time in early September.
Don't come at me with "Turkey isn't good". Maybe your turkey might not be great, but for the rest of us who know how to prepare it properly, there are few meals throughout the year that are as good as this one!
Facts only.
And so speaking of facts, the thing that I am most grateful this year, from an...
Welcome to TheJunior International Hall of Famers.
With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.
This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.
Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.
This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:
Click table to enlarge view
And here’s how we arrived at it…
We removed laggards which are down 5% or more relative to the ACWI Ex. U.S. Index $ACWX over the trailing...
Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.
As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.
Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That's why we're turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we're curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.
We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are "stocks that pay you to make money." Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.
Below is the 9th ASC Mastermind Lab. In this video, I'm joined by Grant Hawkridge, one of our analysts at All Star Charts and a specialist in understanding market sentiment.
How do we know when investors are "bullish" or "bearish"? Price, for one. But there are also several key indicators that we use to measure investor sentiment in addition to price alone. And understanding these indicators, how they work, and when to use them, is critical in getting a complete picture of the market.
In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.
When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...
The stock market is on fire and everyone is making money.
But are we making enough money, considering just how good things have been?
Let me rewind for a second. Do you remember all the promises about a recession that was definitely coming? The yield curve. The money printing. Trump is literally Hitler???
We were even told that we would get a credit crisis of some kind. Maybe even another black Monday...
But all we got instead was one of the greatest years for the stock market in American history.
Here's a chart from our pals over at Goldman Sachs showing this year's performance compared to all the other years over the past century.
It's hard to find a better year for investors:
And this is a good lesson for all of us, myself included.
Even though we've been pounding the table this entire bull market to buy stocks and be as aggressive as possible, it's a nice reminder that we should absolutely focus on price behavior, particularly when sentiment is this far removed from reality.
While stocks have been putting up historic returns, the gloom...
For example, your bear market strategies are probably not going to be great during a bull market. Your trend following strategies are probably not going to work too well in rangebound markets. Your...
A funny thing happened after Donald Trump won the U.S. Election by a landslide....
Everyone just assumed it would be bad for Solar stocks.
And it was, for a moment anyway...
But when everyone just assumes a specific outcome, and everyone is already positioned for that, we love to take the other side as that positioning unwinds.
Remember, it's not the fundamentals that drive asset prices. It's positioning, and the unwinds in extreme positioning that moves asset prices the most violently.
The latest example of this market anomaly is in Solar. Notice how during this sell-off, Momentum never reached oversold conditions.
Oversold conditions are characteristics of downtrends.
Momentum is suggesting that Solar is NOT in one of those...
And when you look at the largest component of the Solar Index, the set up is so clean.
$FSLR has retraced slightly more than 61.8% of the entire rally this year...
If First Solar can recover here and get back into the 200s, then the squeeze is on.
And when you have a setup like this, the goal is to make as much money as possible.