It's not just Technical Analysis all the time. It's actually quite the opposite. We have a lot of conversations with really smart people about all kinds of topics.
Today's guest is my pal Steve Reitmeister, who brings 40 years of experience, including being Editor-in-Chief at Zacks.com and CEO of Stocknews.com.
Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended December 6, 2024. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.
Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’...
Speculative technology stocks have been mooning in recent weeks. Many of these stocks have rallied over 100% in the last month alone.
Today, we're outlining a technology stock that rallied 700% in half a year after pivoting from blockchain infrastructure to high-performance computing. In other words, they pivoted from crypto to AI.
After consolidating for over a year, the stock put the finishing touches on a textbook basing pattern last week and is beginning a fresh leg higher.
But it's not just the chart that has us excited... the short sellers have gotten way too greedy, and we're going to exploit their weakness.
According to the National Retail Federation, 197 million Americans shopped over the 5 days from Thanksgiving weekend through Cyber Monday. There are only216 million Americans over 15 years old in the country. Even allowing for double-counting, that’s a good turn-out for a fake holiday with unexceptional discounts.
Who won?
Well according to our Retail and Consumer expert Jeff Macke,
"Abercrombie won the mall. Walmart won Discount. William Sonoma and Dick’s Sporting Goods have won Home and Sports so hard they’re running out of chains to compete with. Amazon is winning the world and barely seems to care about (or profit from) retail at all."
The S&P500, Nasdaq100 and Global100 Index each made new all-time highs yesterday.
This is among many other stocks, sectors and indexes around the world that are also making new cycle highs.
We've been buying stocks very aggressively, of course, because historically it pays much better to own stocks during bull markets vs doing the alternative.
We've gone back and done the work. It's just math.
Those investors with too much cash, or too few stocks in their portfolios, have been paying the consequences.
The pushback I get, and have been getting over the past couple of years, tends to revolve around valuation and how stocks are "too expensive".
I find that to be a hilarious reason to avoid buying stocks during a bull market.
Common excuses for fighting this powerful trend include, but are not limited to:
The 4th Highest Trailing P/E for the S&P500 in 124 years
US Stock Market Concentration is at a record high, when you add up the top 10 companies as a % of Total S&P500 market-cap
The New York Stock Exchange held its annual Tree Lighting Event this week. It was spectacular, as always.
But we're not here to talk about pine trees or LED lights. We're here to talk about commodities.
The NYSE has an array of vehicles to trade, most being equities.
They also have several commodity funds, which happen to offer asymmetric risk versus reward opportunities at current levels. Let's talk about them.
Our first setup is the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund $DBA:
The top five holdings are cocoa (14.8%), coffee (13%), live cattle (11.9%), sugar (11.6%), and corn (11.4%), several of which we've recently discussed.
I was wondering myself. So I asked Retail and Consumer expert Jeff Macke to shoot over some results.
His answer?
"Abercrombie won the mall. Walmart won Discount. William Sonoma and Dick’s Sporting Goods have won Home and Sports so hard they’re running out of chains to compete with. Amazon is winning the world and barely seems to care about (or profit from) retail at all."
Man is he good.
Look at this chart of Abercrombie breaking out of this multi-decade base to new all-time highs:
Whenever I want to know what's going on in retail, Jeff is the guy I ask.
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.
We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.
Below is the 10th ASC Mastermind Lab. In this video, I'm joined by Brian Shannon. Brian is the founder of Alphatrends, and also wrote two of the most influential technical analysis books: Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes, and Maximum Trading Gains With Anchord VWAP.
Brian Shannon has written two of the most influential recent books on technical analysis, and moving averages are at the core of both.
In this Mastermind Lab, Brian and I discuss the flaws of traditional moving averages, and why VWAP is itself essentially another form of moving average.
Moving averages are generally meant to allow investors to analyze assets across multiple timeframes, and Brian literally wrote the book on multiple timeframe analysis. So when I want to talk about this stuff, Brian is one of the first guys I call.
We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.
However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!
With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.
Welcome to TheJunior Hall of Famers.
This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.
There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.
Last night was our LIVE Monthly Charts Strategy Session for Premium Members of ASC Research.
This 2-times per month LIVE event is one of the biggest reasons why most of the world's largest financial institutions that you've ever heard of come to Allstarcharts for help making big decisions in the market.
One chart that really stood out to me, especially considering where we are in the cycle, is just how many bears there are among individual investors.
In fact, despite the new all-time highs in the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq100 and Russell2000 Indexes, there are...