From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Metal and mining stocks are hanging tough.

Sure, miners aren’t flashing an overwhelming number of new highs, but they’re also not registering an alarming number of new lows.

That’s impressive, especially considering Copper’s epic false start.

While many precious and base metal stocks consolidate, let’s review the next group of mining names before they rip…

Check out the Junior Uranium Miners ETF $URNJ versus the Uranium Miners ETF $URNM:

Despite the significant overlap between these two ETFs, I view a breakout in the URNJ-to-URNM ratio as a clear risk-on signal (much like the relative strength displayed by junior gold miners). 

The top four URNJ holdings – accounting for approximately 60% of the ETF – also belong to URNM. In comparison, those same four stocks combine for just 28% of URNM.

URNM also includes the $24B uranium bellwether Cameco Corp. $CCJ (a 17% weighting) and the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’ve heard JC say it many times: “You guys are the smart money.”

After spending a week with clients at our Portfolio Accelerator and fielding countless reader emails, I completely agree!  

Since gold and silver prices are getting a bit wild, I decided to dive straight into the Gold Rush mailbag today to start a healthy discussion about what might happen next…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’ve heard JC say it many times… 

“You guys are the smart money.”

After spending a week with clients at our Portfolio Accelerator and fielding countless reader emails, I completely agree!  

Since gold and silver prices are getting a bit wild, I decided to dive straight into the Gold Rush mailbag today to start a healthy discussion about what might happen next…

• What happened to gold/silver? Is the rally over?

-Parry

No, the rally isn't over. 

Gold is consolidating below a critical extension level following a breakout to new all-time highs. And Silver is trading just off fresh decade-highs.

In many ways, it’s just getting started.

I can’t hold a bearish or neutral bias for precious metals while Silver trades above the 2020 highs of roughly 30.

The precious metals correction wasn’t pretty last week. But I’m happy to roll with the punches as long as silver futures hold their breakout.

• Does the severity of the moves in gold really change anything as long as...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Don’t let a few days of selling pressure fool you.

Despite intense gold, copper, and crude oil pullbacks, many commodity-related assets are flashing buy signals.

For instance…

The Global Carbon ETF $KRBN:

KRBN holds a basket of European and U.S. carbon allowance futures – also known as carbon credits. Companies use these credits to offset the costs of releasing greenhouse gases.

Interestingly, the similarities between the carbon allowances, copper versus gold, and silver versus gold charts are uncanny. All three are violating multi-year downtrend lines, suggesting bullish trend reversals and a risk-on market environment.

We like KRBN long above 35, targeting 56.

That’s it for today. We’ll be back with more next week.

Thanks for reading.

Premium members, be sure to check out the Commodity Trade of the Week below.

Trade of the Week

Today, we’re outlining Nutrien $NTR, a $30B Canadian agricultural inputs company:

Nutrien recently broke a multi-year downtrend line at a crucial polarity level going back to the IPO. 

We’...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Silver futures are rising to the occasion.

The silver-to-gold ratio went from posting fresh six-month highs last Monday to hitting 16-month highs by Friday’s close.

Silver is ripping on absolute and relative terms, and this can mean only one thing: 

Risk-on!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Silver futures are rising to the occasion.

The silver-to-gold ratio went from posting fresh six-month highs last Monday to hitting sixteen-month highs by Friday’s close.

Silver is ripping on absolute and relative terms, and this can mean only one thing: 

Risk-on!

Check out Silver driving home an explosive resolution following a successful pullback:

The pullback is another name for a retest – a common feature following a significant breakout. (Some use the term “throwback” to distinguish the action following an upside resolution from a “pullback” that displaces a downside resolution. But they’re all pullbacks to me.)

Interestingly, top-flight international soccer uses the same term for a particular goal-scoring tactic—a player takes the ball to the touchline and then passes to a teammate at the top of the box, who waits to direct the ball into the back of the net. 

Premier League Champions Manchester City and Runners-up Arsenal successfully applied the pullback in a match last week. (One can only hope Liverpool’s incoming manager, Arne Slot, is taking...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Mining stocks are sticking their breakouts as our list of trending tickers grows. 

The Junior Gold Miners ETF $GDXJ is breaking out, platinum futures are completing a year-long base, and the silver-to-gold ratio is posting new highs.

With risk-seeking behavior creeping back into precious metals, it’s time to turn up the heat…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Mining stocks are sticking their breakouts as our list of trending tickers grows. 

The Junior Gold Miners ETF $GDXJ is breaking out, platinum futures are completing a yearlong base, and the silver-to-gold ratio is posting new highs.

With risk-seeking behavior creeping back into precious metals, it’s time to turn up the heat…

Check out the silver/gold ratio printing a fresh six-month high while violating a multi-year downtrend line:

Finally, Silver is bringing it!

I won’t get too carried away by these six-month highs. But it’s a start. 

Trend reversals begin with trendline breaks. The silver-to-gold ratio is piercing a downtrend line drawn from the 2021 peak, signaling the early stages of a bullish reversal while revealing an uptick in risk appetite.

Plus, GDXJ is breaking out!

We have our levels for Gold and Silver, so let’s focus on a mining stock trading at a key area of former resistance.

Here’s McEwan Mining Inc. $MUX, a $500M gold miner based in Toronto, Canada:

MUX is pulling back to a...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Crude oil is searching for a foothold. Copper is climbing. And Gold is clinging to its record high.

Like most of the market, raw materials are weathering the storm with varying degrees of success.

Nevertheless, today’s commodity deck includes plenty of uplifting charts – plus a trade you’ll want to take home over the weekend…

Check out the Water Resources ETF $PHO posting a new all-time high:

JC discussed PHO at the start of 2022 during a Live Strategy Session.

We’ve all navigated twists and turns, picking up our fair share of gray hair. Two years later, PHO is finally moving higher.

These updated levels place the Water Resources ETF roughly 4% above our buy signal. I like raising the entry point to 65 and the target to 90. 

According to Edwards and Magee’s 3% rule (price closing 3% above a defined risk level), PHO has posted a valid breakout. 

All aboard! 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Stock market bulls are scooping and scoring as the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average all show green. 

Stocks and rocks should benefit on the heels of renewed rate-cut hopes. 

Today, I’ll outline a name that checks both boxes. 

Spoiler alert: It’s a prime candidate for a short squeeze…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Stock market bulls are scooping and scoring as the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow indexes all see green. 

Stocks and rocks should benefit on the heels of renewed rate-cut hopes. 

Today, I’ll outline a name that checks both boxes. 

Spoiler alert: It’s a prime candidate for a short squeeze…

Check out the precious metal trading company, A-Mark Precious Metals $AMRK:

A-Mark popped up on our freshly squeezed scan, carrying a 23.6% short interest with ten days to cover.

While AMRK proved an easy short last fall, remaining short-sellers may have outstayed their welcome. AMRK has gained more than 70% since late February. Buyers are now driving prices to the upper bounds of a multi-year range, just shy of a new all-time high.

Buying base breakouts and riding new all-times are two of our favorite trading pastimes. Plus, vulnerable bears provide an added perk as they will likely fuel an explosive rally.

If and when...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The talking heads are about to call the top in commodities.

It’s coming, so we might as well prepare. 

In fact, it’ll only get louder if the US dollar follows crude’s lead…

Crude oil and the dollar have traded in sync for a few years now (mainly due to the strong positive correlation between the buck and interest rates).

During Q3 of last year, the energy sector rallied with the US dollar while most of the market fell under pressure. 

This relationship has been so strong we actually like swapping bonds for energy stocks in the new sixty-forty portfolio.

But crude oil, interest rates, and the US dollar have rallied for almost four straight months. 

They’re all due for a correction.

Here’s crude oil leading the way, violating a multi-month trendline:

If the dollar tracks lower here, sellers will likely trounce black gold. Energy stocks will follow.

Ding-dong, inflation is dead! 

Which...