From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold is silencing all the haters – even me!

I’ll admit, I had my doubts. 

But I also carried an unnerving suspicion buyers would strike as soon as I dropped my guard…

Gold futures sliced through our breakout level last week, closing at record highs:

Unbelievable… Or, better yet, undeniable.

Gold not only hit a new all-time high, it broke out with authority as it gained more than 4% last week. 

The path of least resistance points higher toward 2,500 (our initial objective). But the price of gold could go much higher.

Gold is embarking on a new secular bull run:

As it rips to new heights, it will take the entire metal and mining space along for the ride.

But we’re in the early innings of an uptrend that could last for years to come.

Instead of catching falling knives or taking cute catch-up trades, it’s best to simplify our strategy and buy the strongest names. 

Gold mining stocks have suffered for years, and a handful of names were absolutely clobbered last month. A few gold miners are even offering up the mother-of-all mean...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold is up for the sixth day in a row – and it looks like this week’s breakout might be the real deal.

If it is — and gold continues to rip — it’s only a matter of time before copper breaks out too.

Check out the overlay chart of gold and copper futures:

Where gold goes, copper follows. Or perhaps they simply enjoy similar paths.

The rhyme or reason makes no difference. During a commodity bull run, precious and industrial metals will enter a broad markup phase. Gold will not take off on a rip-roaring rally without copper by its side.

I placed a question mark above copper’s former resistance level, marked by the 2011 and 2022 highs. To be clear, the annotation poses the question of when — not if – copper will resolve higher.

But before Dr. Copper can break the psychological barrier of five dollars, it must cut loose above four.

It’s getting close…

Copper futures are carving out a multi-month base as buyers chip away at overhead supply.

An eight-week inverted head-and-shoulders pattern is forming just below the breakout level. I expect this pattern to...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

You can’t keep the gold bugs down.

They’re a hearty bunch full of true grit, choosing to focus on the silver lining while persevering through countless downturns.

Gold, on the other hand, has been an easy target…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

You can’t keep the gold bugs down.

They’re a hearty bunch full of true grit, choosing to focus on the silver lining while persevering through countless downturns.

Gold, on the other hand, has been an easy target…

Every time buyers have managed to drive the price back to the 2,089 level… 

Rejected! 

Sellers have stepped in, capping price while breaking the hearts of gold bugs everywhere. 

Or so I thought. It turns out you can’t break a gold bug’s heart. 

Try as they might, sellers are no match for gold bugs’ bullish conviction. 

Buyers rushed in, driving price higher following last month’s breakdown:

I’ll admit, I didn’t see this week’s retest and possible breakout coming.

The market simply wore me down. I guess I’m not what you might consider a true gold bug. 

You can call me weak if you like. But that won’t stop me from buying gold futures on a decisive daily close above 2,100 with a target of approximately 2,500.

And it shouldn’t stop you, either.

Gold mining stocks will also spring back to life if gold...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What happened to those everyday commodity contracts the average investor follows?

I’m talking about crude oil, gold, and copper.

These days, it’s all about cattle futures, orange juice, or cocoa hitting an all-time high. 

I’m sure everyone down at the NYMEX or the folks over at the CBOT in Chicago are having a ball. But what about the stock traders trying to get a piece of the action?

Sure, the energy trade is starting to work again. But gold has been a range-bound mess since the summer of 2020. And gold mining stocks have been an absolute dumpster fire.

It just doesn’t make sense amid a commodity bull run…

No, the absence of gold and copper breakouts doesn’t make much sense, and neither does crude oil underperforming gold as interest rates rise:

But black gold’s lack of relative strength speaks more to the range-bound nature of precious metals than crude oil weakness.

In fact, Gold is retesting its 2020 high for the fourth time in just under four years.

Will it finally break out? 

I don’t know. But an upside resolution in gold futures will likely...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The market is punishing investors for owning gold mining stocks.

Sure, a handful of gold miners are holding above key levels.

Buenaventura S.A.A. $BVN, Orla Mining $ORLA, and Harmony Gold $HMY belong to this elite group of outperformers.

But that’s about it.

I’m not giving these trades too much room. And I’m not piling into new long positions. Not yet! 

Here’s why…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The market is punishing investors for owning gold mining stocks.

Sure, a handful of gold miners are holding above key levels.

Buenaventura S.A.A. $BVN, Orla Mining $ORLA, and Harmony Gold $HMY belong to this elite group of outperformers.

But that’s about it.

I’m not giving these trades too much room. And I’m not piling into new long positions. Not yet! 

Here’s why…

Gold mining stocks continue to print fresh lows versus the broader market.

Check out the VanEck Gold Miners ETF $GDX relative to the S&P 500 ETF $SPY:

Since its inception in 2006, GDX has never traded at this much of a discount to the S&P 500. This is the exact opposite of what we would see if gold and other precious metals were in an uptrend.

The strongest trending assets outperform their alternatives. 

On the other hand, precious metals are exhibiting relative weakness – a clear sign of a severe downtrend.

Investors are more interested in buying NVIDIA Corp. $NVDA and Super Micro Computer $SMCI.

No one wants to own shares of companies that dig in the...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Commodities are making moves.

Cotton is forming a bull flag following last week’s breakout. Coffee futures are coiling below a critical polarity zone. Cattle and hogs are running wild. Even Dr.Copper is perking up, posting positive returns over the trailing five days.

And don’t forget about cocoa futures as they continue to print fresh all-time highs. 

With all this action heating up, let’s turn our attention to one of 2021’s most explosive markets…

Lumber.

Remember all the lumber memes on Twitter?

Dudes were posting their W’s sitting atop stacks of 2x4s and plywood. I’ll never forget it. 

As a trader, I prefer to avoid lumber futures. It’s a thin market. But I can’t ignore the yearlong base forming on the daily chart:

Buyers are running into resistance at a shelf of former highs. A decisive close above 588.0 (Dec. closing high) flashes a buy signal.

Last year’s high stands as a logical initial target at approximately 650.0. 

If lumber is in your wheelhouse, have a go. I won’t be taking this trade. It’s not for me.

Instead, I’m more...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold’s beginning to attract some attention.

Not because it was shooting higher but because it kept trading while most respectable markets closed in observance of Presidents Day.

US stocks, grains, and other god-fearing commodities did not trade. So investors needed something to talk about other than Bitcoin. 

But as gold stole the headlines, no one was talking about platinum.

I like that platinum isn’t attracting too many eyeballs right now.

Here’s why…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold’s beginning to attract some attention.

Not because it was shooting higher but because it kept trading while most respectable markets closed in observance of Presidents Day.

US stocks, grains, and other god-fearing commodities did not trade. So investors needed something to talk about other than Bitcoin. 

But as gold stole the headlines, no one was talking about platinum.

I like that platinum isn’t attracting too many eyeballs right now.

Here’s why…

Platinum futures are carving out a potential multi-year reversal pattern.

A series of former highs (the 2021, 2022, and 2023 peaks) mark a critical area of overhead supply and our breakout level at approximately 1,140.

But no one seems to care – probably because price is trading well below a reasonable risk level. 

Precious metals – not just gold and silver – are a range-bound mess at best. Yet glimmers of hope lie within platinum’s sideways chop.

Momentum (14-week RSI) is oscillating within a bullish regime. Price is also holding above the 2022 and 2023 lows.

I understand if those data points...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Naming a newborn is tough.

Who is this tiny person? And who will they aspire to be?

These are impossible questions to answer.

As you can imagine, the wifey and I were stumped upon meeting our baby girl earlier this week. 

Every time I looked into her eyes, I could hear her plead, “Give me a name, boy!” A situation ten-year-old Ian never fathomed – even while watching The NeverEnding Story. 

After a few days of deliberation, hours of snuggles, and the casual piercing gaze, I could only discern one thing: she smelled good. 

So I offered up “Coco.” 

It was on our shortlist. Plus, will we ever forget this year’s epic rally in cocoa futures? I certainly won’t.

Well, we ultimately landed on Cora, which suits her in some indescribable way.

But if I hadn’t cut technology this week so I could focus on my girls, I might have thrown “Cotton” into the ring.

I mean – it’s the “fabric of our lives!”

Check...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’m fed up with precious metals. 

I’m tired of all the failed breakouts and the sideways chop.

So, please, spare me the silver-surfer stories about undervalued silver or how it will outperform gold 16-to-1 during the next bull run. 

I’m tired of it – all of it!

But the diehard gold bugs continue to rally the troops – and maybe they’re on to something.

After all, gold is trading less than a hundred bucks from its all-time high. Is there still a chance for a clean breakout soon?

Let’s take a cold, hard look…