From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’m fed up with precious metals. 

I’m tired of all the failed breakouts and the sideways chop.

So, please, spare me the silver-surfer stories about undervalued silver or how it will outperform gold 16-to-1 during the next bull run. 

I’m tired of it – all of it!

But the diehard gold bugs continue to rally the troops – and maybe they’re on to something.

After all, gold is trading less than a hundred bucks from its all-time high. Is there still a chance for a clean breakout soon?

Let’s take a cold, hard look…

Check out gold’s four-year base:

I can’t lie: This is the type of base that gets me out of bed in the morning.

It’s a classic inverted head-and-shoulders with an abbreviated right shoulder. It oozes demand!

Plus, momentum is in a bullish regime. This thing looks ready to rip! 

But I’m over it.

Funny how that works. The markets are here to test us, causing maximum pain whenever possible.

So is the market just wearing me down?

Gold futures are coiling within a well-defined symmetrical triangle just below a...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s time to turn our attention to the energy space.

The same market conditions that favored energy in Q3 of last year are brewing. 

Interest rates are rising. King Dollar is refusing to step aside.

And energy contracts – especially crude oil – are entering a historically strong period of the year.

Check out crude oil’s seasonality since 1984: 

February kicks off the strongest four-month period of the year.

Meanwhile, energy contracts are forming potential bullish reversals.

Perhaps last month’s crude oil breakout has been sloppy. But buyers reclaimed our risk level yesterday – right around when crude tends to bottom. 

Here’s crude’s seasonality for the next two months (February through March):

Up and to the right! 

Seasonality paints a bullish picture for oil and this chart doesn’t include April – black gold’s strongest month of the year.

Of course, seasonals alone aren’t a reason to take a position.

Instead, they reveal an aspect of the market environment, like positioning and sentiment.

Regardless of how one...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

If silver doesn’t come to play, precious metals won’t win the day.

Gold’s resilience has been impressive lately, especially as its two main headwinds – the US dollar and real yields – catch higher. 

But while all eyes are following gold as it coils just below all-time highs, I’m tracking silver. Because gold’s doggedness is all for naught if silver breaks down.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

If silver doesn’t come to play, precious metals won’t win the day.

Gold’s resilience has been impressive lately, especially as its two main headwinds – the US dollar and real yields – catch higher. 

But while all eyes are following gold as it coils just below all-time highs, I’m tracking silver. Because gold’s doggedness is all for naught if silver breaks down.

Check out the iShares Silver Trust ETF $SLV retesting a critical former support level at approximately 20.50:

Perhaps it’s not the cleanest level. 

Nevertheless, plenty of price memory exists at this shelf of former lows. If SLV undercuts those former lows, precious metals will fall under increased selling pressure.

Gold futures will break down below 2,000. The Gold Miners ETF $GDX will fade below 30. And the handful of breakouts we’ve witnessed over the past few months will fail.

Plus, the silver-to-gold ratio will likely post a fresh 52-week low:

It’s another breakdown gold bugs prefer to avoid.

Silver dropping relative to gold signals a low turnout as investors are being rewarded...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Holy reversals, Batman!

The tactical direction flipped for the dollar and rates this morning on the heels of stronger-than-expected job growth. 

Whipsaws are dotting the charts, erasing weeks of progress.

How should we react?

Today, I want to show you a trade we can take to sidestep the market chop.

Live cattle futures are posting modest gains today (up roughly 0.50%) as they mosey toward last year’s high. 

Most importantly, they’re shrugging off the broad intraday volatility.

Plus, the structural uptrend remains intact. And I can’t help but wonder if and when lean hogs will catch up to cattle. 

Check out live cattle overlaid with lean hog futures:

These two markets tend to peak and trough together, often trending in the same direction.

Interestingly, cattle and hogs diverged in 2022. Live cattle futures rallied to a new all-time high while lean hogs wallowed in fresh multi-year lows.

I outlined a trade setup for hogs at the beginning of the year, highlighting a potential bullish reversal and the November pivot low as our risk level.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Precious metal charts aren't painting a bullish picture for investors.

Silver is underperforming gold. The Gold Miners ETF $GDX is posting new all-time lows versus the broader market. And everywhere you look, individual gold mining stocks are breaking down.

Well, not all mining stocks. One chart continues to fly high…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Precious metal charts aren’t painting a bullish picture for investors.

Silver is underperforming gold. The Gold Miners ETF $GDX is posting new all-time lows versus the broader market. And everywhere you look, individual gold mining stocks are breaking down.

Well, not all mining stocks. One chart continues to fly high…

Check out Buenaventura S.A.A. $BVN:

BVN has gained over 70% since bouncing off last month’s lows, slicing through our initial and secondary targets. 

Now, it’s coiling in a potential bullish flag just above our risk level. 

The pennant or flag is a continuation pattern by nature, often resolving in the direction of the underlying trend.

My bias points higher toward 20, given the preceding rally. But I can’t hold BVN if it slips below 14.25. That’s our line in the sand.

If this potential bull flag fails, I imagine precious metals are a “no-touch” across the board.

The Harmony Gold Mining $HMY and Eldorado Gold $EGO breakouts likely fail in that environment. And the corrections in the bellwethers – Franco Nevada $FNV...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Stocks aren’t the only assets catching a bid.

Commodities are, too. 

Despite their current rallies, the average investor isn’t concerned with cocoa, cotton, and lean hog futures. 

I get it… What do lean hog futures have to do with Tesla $TSLA?

But Dr. Copper – with its Ph.D. in economics – is ripping higher this week. 

And crude oil is trading above our risk level outlined last month.

Check out crude oil futures slicing through the 75 level:

Kudos to those who took the signal, as it’s over a third of the way to our target of 83. 

Crude is up 0.75% today alone, heading into the close with an intra-day high of 78.21. I like seeing strength heading into Friday’s close, as it often spills into the following week.

I imagine crude will hit our target within the next few weeks.

I’m taking profits at our target without question. The 83 level marks a logical potential resistance zone. And crude trades closer to the lower bounds of a much larger consolidation.

I believe crude will eventually break above 83 further down the...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

First, gold failed to hold its breakout to new all-time highs.

Then, the silver-to-gold ratio undercut a critical shelf of former lows.

Now, the Gold Miners ETF $GDX is printing a new all-time low versus the broader market!

Is there any sane reason to bet on the miners right now?

Let’s take a look…

Check out GDX relative to the S&P 500 ETF $SPY: 

If precious metals are in a bull market, the stocks that benefit the most in that environment are not making new all-time relative lows versus the broader market.

And if the new all-time relative low isn’t enough, the components of the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index cover it:

Only one – Eldorado Gold $EGO – out of the 30 stocks in the index did not print a fresh four-week low last week.

Ugly!

Yet plenty of gold mining stocks continue to carve out bullish reversal formations despite the broad near-term weakness.

Orla Mining $ORLA stands out:

ORLA is forming a potential inverted head and shoulder pattern as the 14-day RSI posts a bullish divergence.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

First, gold failed to hold its breakout to new all-time highs.

Then, the silver-to-gold ratio undercut a critical shelf of former lows.

Now, the Gold Miners ETF $GDX is printing a new all-time low versus the broader market!

Is there any sane reason to bet on the miners right now?

Let’s take a look…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Houthi rebels are rampaging in the Red Sea.

The result: Many carriers are taking the scenic route around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa instead of the Suez Canal. 

The longer route brings weeks-long delays and increased costs as the price to ship a 40-foot-long container has nearly doubled since late November.

It won’t be long before those additional charges trickle down to us, the consumer.

What are you going to do?

Buy marine shipping stocks!

Check out our custom equal-weight marine shipping index posting fresh eight-year highs:

I like buying base breakouts, especially when they reclaim critical shelves of former lows (notice the polarity zone marked by the ‘12 and ‘14 troughs and early ‘23 peak).

These often overlooked stocks (seriously, when’s the last time you bought a shipping stock?) are also on the verge of breaking out versus the broader market:

It always bears repeating: The strongest trends outperform their alternatives.

Many of the names in our index will post new highs upon completing this bullish reversal...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar is marching higher, stomping gold mining stocks into dust.

Harmony $HMY, Kinross $KGC, and Eldorado Gold $EGO are hovering just above last month's breakout levels.

And Franco Nevada $FNV –  a secular leader among royalty companies – is sliding toward fresh multi-year lows!