Your Anger Is Your Problem, Not Ours.
We need to worry about our own portfolios. I need to take care of my family. I'm in charge of protecting my clients.
I don't have time to think about your mental issues. That's your responsibility.
Investing is a selfish endeavor. If you can figure out where the pain is, where people are really getting hurt the most, that's where we want to pay attention.
The unwinds in sentiment can produce a ton of revenues that can go a long way in helping us accomplish our financial goals.
And to be clear, there are more important things in life than making money. But when it comes to trading and investing, there is nothing more important. Profiting is the ONLY goal.
So when I look back at prior Decembers, I see much more fear this time than we have in the prior two years.
If you recall, in December 2020, things were on the up and up, near the end of one of the greatest 52 weeks in stock market history. Everyone was bullish. And then stocks peaked in early February, less than a couple of months later.
Go back to December of 2019 and, once again, we were towards the end of one of the greatest, least volatile years, in stock market history. And then stocks peaked in February. We then saw one of the most vicious crashes of all time. That was a lot fun.
But those times were much different. We aggregate a lot of sentiment data here at Allstarcharts. And while people today aren't as angry as December of 2018, or December of 2016 for that matter, we're at least in that direction. We're definitely not anywhere near where we were the past 2 Decembers.
So from a positioning standpoint, we're set up for a strong Q1 for stocks, maybe even Q2, we'll see.
I keep hearing that it's only 5 stocks that are carrying this market.
Do angry people forget 3rd grade arithmetic?
Is that how that works?
I see the equally-weighted Technology Index, not only putting in an outside week, but it actually went out at new all-time highs.
What 5 stocks bro?
I find it hard to feel sympathy for grown adults who let anger issues get in the way of basic math.
Why should I feel bad for them?
I think it's the opposite. Let's take advantage of it.
They say you shouldn't kick someone when they're down, but in the market, that's actually the best time to kick them, when they're already down.
They're angry, underexposed and busy making excuses.
So as far as I'm concerned, let's go to work!
Imagine if these charts resolve higher?
What about this one?
What if industrials resolve this one higher?
The sector that's most highly correlated with the S&P500. What if we're making new all-time highs. You gonna be short?
Stock market breadth isn't great. Fine. But that started over 10 months ago.
What if breadth is so bad that it's good?
The S&P500 is already making new all-time highs. Is that a characteristic of a downtrend?
I've been recovering from COVID, and it seems that many of you are as well.
It's given me time to think.
I've been observing.
From what I can tell, it's probably a good time for all of us to be thinking.
Look around.
What are you seeing?
What are you hearing?
How are people positioned poorly?
Let's take advantage.
I'll be back tomorrow with some of my favorite ideas.
In the meantime, be sure you listen to my podcast with Paul Ciana last week. It was awesome.
And make sure you know what the Santa Claus Rally is all about. Don't be the ignorant one in the room. There's good data here.
Did you see $ROSE this weekend? Are you in it? Cryptos are on fire once again!
And if you have any questions, you know where to find me.
Reach out. We're around!
- JC