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The Strazza Letter

Top Down Trade of the Week (7/12/2025)

July 12, 2025

Welcome back for another Top Down Trade of the Week

This is a classic leadership scan.

We start with the best sectors, then drill into the subgroups. We pick one, and then take a look at the top stocks in it. 

This week’s standout is Materials, holding steady at the number four spot in our sector rankings.

 

It’s not the first time we’ve highlighted Materials since we began publishing this scan. Strength has been quietly building under the surface for a while now.

Just last week, $XLB posted its best relative performance versus the broader market in over five years.

I'm open to the idea of a big rotation into cyclicals in the back half of this year.

Here is a look at our overall industry rankings, which shows...

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
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(Commodities Weekly) We Nailed Copper. Here’s What’s Next 📊

July 11, 2025

For months now, we’ve been pounding the table on Copper. 

Now, the trade is on fire. Copper futures had their best day ever on Tuesday after news of new tariffs from the Trump campaign.

This move also resulted in the first overbought reading on the 14-day RSI since March, marking the beginning of a new bullish momentum regime.

We've also been betting on the miners playing catch-up, and sure enough, that's working, too.

But as strong as that move was, Copper isn’t alone. 

Gold rang the dinner bell over a year ago with new all-time highs in March 2024. 

Since then, we've watched precious metals like Silver,...

Alfonso’s Daily Note,
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Metals in Motion

July 11, 2025

Metals are on the move this week — and in a big way.

Silver, Copper, Palladium, Platinum… All printing fresh breakouts at the same time.

Gold kicked things off last year. It’s been stair-stepping higher for months, leading the charge. But recently, it’s cooled off — and now the rest of the complex is following suit.

Silver’s breaking out from a massive base and pushing into territory we haven’t seen in over 13 years.

 

We think 50 is on the table — and it could get there fast.

Copper’s part of this conversation too. Always has been.

We don’t call it Dr. Copper for nothing — it’s a key read on growth and the global economy.

And this week? It just logged its best single-day gain in history.

 

Big moves like this usually mean one of two things:

A blow-off...

The Strazza Letter

Hooray for Bitcoin!

July 11, 2025

After several false starts, the world’s largest cryptocurrency finally got it done. 

With some solid momentum right out the gate, my only question is… 

How far will it run?

And I think it’s bigger than BTC this time around. I’m looking for the altcoins to finally buy in and kick off a broad crypto bull market. 

If you look beyond the blue-chip alts, most of these tokens have been going through accumulation for years— carving out massive rounding bottoms.

I’m looking for these patterns to morph into fresh uptrends… one after the next. And soon.

What I’m really saying is get ready for an altcoin summer.

And here’s the main reason why. 

 

The squeeze indicator in the lower pane shows that volatility is absolutely depressed in BTC, and has been for a while. 

...
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The Market Speaks—The Fed Follows

July 11, 2025

Everyone keeps assuming the Fed is done. That rates peaked in 2023. That the next move is down. That the cycle has run its course and we’re heading back to easy money.

But here’s the thing: the market says otherwise.

The 30-year yield has been grinding higher for most of 2025—not violently, not emotionally, just relentlessly

Quiet pressure. And when you see that kind of persistent strength at the long end, while the Fed Funds rate sits frozen? That’s not noise. That’s not a shrug. That’s a message.

And this pattern? We’ve seen it before. 

 

In 2018, the Fed hiked into weakness. The 30-year had already peaked, already started to roll over. The bond market was waving red flags. Powell didn’t listen. They pushed one step too far, broke the system, and were forced to reverse course.

The market knew first. The Fed caught up too late.

Then in 2024, it happened again—only flipped.

The Fed started cutting. But the 30-year? It didn’t follow. It rose. Why? Because that cut wasn’t about collapsing demand. It was...

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International Hall of Famers (07-11-2025)

July 11, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important...

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Crypto’s Next Leg

July 10, 2025

Bitcoin is breaking out to new all-time highs, and the broader crypto complex looks ready to follow.

I’m focused on the most important charts and levels.

BTC has been gearing up for a move all year long. Consolidating. Coiling. Digesting gains. Building up energy for the next leg higher.

Sentiment is nowhere near what we’ve seen in past cycles. And that’s a good thing.

For us, it all starts with one level: Bitcoin above 110K. That’s the line in the sand. That’s where we get aggressive.

Currently, BTC is resolving higher from a textbook bull flag at its old highs.

 

The breakout is on— I think we’re heading toward 150K.

Ethereum’s telling a similar story. It’s been coiling just like Bitcoin, and appears to be resolving higher now.

 

ETH is reclaiming the VWAP anchored to the all-time highs, which...

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The Strazza Letter

Special Report: Regional Bank Run

July 10, 2025

Regional banks live far-out on the financial sector risk curve.

These companies take deposits and invest in fixed-rate assets—leaving them open to interest rate risk, and more specifically, duration risk.

When the Fed aggressively raised rates a few years ago, the market value of bank assets plummeted. At the same time, customers were withdrawing funds to earn higher yields elsewhere. 

Massive losses were realized, and some big regional banks didn’t make it. 

But that was over two years ago. Rates have stabilized, and the balance sheet issues have improved. 

More importantly, Regional Banks have undergone a prolonged bottoming process, and a new primary uptrend is underway.

And just look at what money-center banks and international banks are doing. They’ve been some of the best stocks around the world. 

Whether you look at...

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2 to 100 Club (07-09-2025)

July 9, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
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Currency Report: Weak Dollar Rules

July 9, 2025

We’ve spent the better part of this year highlighting one breakout after another against the Greenback. The evidence is everywhere you look. 

Emerging-market currencies, developed-market FX, precious metals, and international equities. All these things are working.

This is more than just a handful of datapoints. It’s textbook intermarket behavior. And it’s what a weak dollar cycle looks like. 

If you’re still trying to figure out where to put your money when the Dollar’s trending lower, you don’t have to guess. History has made it clear:

 

This is the All Star Charts Weak Dollar Composite, a custom index we built to track this basket of assets. They all have one very important thing in common: they outperform when the Dollar is falling.

See how tight that inverse relationship is?

When the Dollar is in bullish regimes, these assets take a back seat. When the Dollar is in a bearish regime, they tend to lead. 

And it’s not just this cycle. You can zoom out forever and see this intermarket action repeat throughout history. We’ve seen it before...

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A Squeeze in the Palantir of Space 🚀

July 8, 2025

As most major averages print fresh all-time highs, short sellers are getting squeezed hard.

They’ve been caught leaning too far in the wrong direction, and now they’re scrambling to unwind their bets as prices surge. 

That panic creates the perfect fuel for our Freshly Squeezed strategy - where we hunt for the most explosive short-squeeze candidates before they go vertical.

And right now, the leaderboard is lighting up.

Take a look at our latest scan 👇 

As you can see, Big Bear AI $BBAI, New Fortress Energy $NFE, and Prime Medicine $PRME are at the top of the leaderboard. 

Over the last 10 trading sessions, they've rallied 95.7%, 90.7%, and 72.8%, respectively.

These are precisely the kinds of parabolic moves we aim to catch early.

We’re also tracking squeeze candidates by short interest and days-to-cover...

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The Strazza Letter

What’s Working

July 7, 2025

I'm excited to join JC tonight for the monthly conference call.

I think it's the best thing we do at All Star Charts.

Even the prep work is a great exercise for the whole team. It forces us to step back and focus on what's most important— how to position for the biggest primary trends.

In bull markets, you want to ride the leaders. You want to lean into the things that have been working. They tend to keep working.

You want to make the most of these times. And to do that, you have to own the best stocks.

Right now, the best ones are the riskiest ones. The names the experts said would never see these valuations again. The ones that have been working.

Here is the ARK flagship fund relative to the broader market:

 

I think this relationship is as important as anything we could discuss on tonight’s call. It’s the whole risk-on story in one chart.

While risk appetite has been moving in the right direction and improving for several years, it was...