Some markets have been choppy for longer than others. Most of the Nasdaq has been a chop fest since February, and so have Emerging Markets. Now since about May a lot more of the cyclical and developed markets have taken a hit.
You can see that in the Equally-weighted S&P500 Index:
You can make a case for either the bulls or the bears here.
But regardless of which camp you’re in, you’ll agree it’s been a choppy mess for 3 months.
On the bullish side of the aisle, sits the Equally-weighted Nasdaq 100 Index. The way I see it, how bad could things possibly be if this one is above its February highs?
Our Risk On/ Risk Off Checklist popped back up to 32% Risk On. This is as of Wednesday’s Close (7/21):
We’ll be watching this for Intermarket confirmations.
But the trend here for “Stocks” is still messy and sideways, at best.
With a lack of bears in recent months, our outlook was that the market was going to create some new ones. And that’s usually accomplished through a price correction.
Was the past week enough to move the needle? Are the bears coming back?
My suspicion is that it wasn’t. And no, they are not.
Do you think we can see another 20% upside in major stock market indexes without first seeing a reset in sentiment?
Anything is possible, but is that the bet that we want to make?
I spend a lot of time reviewing data and thinking about this sort of thing.
So I wanted to throw it out there for you?
What do you think?