From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

• The market hasn’t had to cope with disappointing news 
• Increased confidence raises the expectations bar
• Rising yields & growth hiccups offer a challenge

The S&P 500 has benefitted from an unprecedented string of good news. The economic surprise index has been positive since June (the longest continuous streak on record) and for most of that time has been accompanied by a rising earnings revision trend. Since 2003, this combination of positive economic surprises and rising earnings revisions have occurred less than 30% of the time. But in that environment, the S&P 500 has risen at a 20% annual rate, versus an overall annualized gain of 8.7% since January 2003.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

With both Energy and Communication Services faltering in recent weeks, the sector leadership group has narrowed to Materials, Industrials, and Financials. Materials, which took over the top spot in the rankings this week, is the rare sector right now that has been a leader on both a short-term and long-term basis. Health Care and Real Estate (both of which made new highs last week) are climbing in the rankings and if recent strength persists could soon join the leadership group.  Our industry group heat map shows continued leadership from mid-caps overall.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

I recently came across a conversation about momentum…

I was excited when I first saw it -- but disappointed when it didn't actually go anywhere.

Okay that's a joke. But I did see a momentum discussion. This time, it went somewhere. It even got me thinking about my own experience with momentum when it comes to making investment decisions.

Here's the story: 

Someone on Twitter asked whether momentum investing had a godfather of sorts, an established voice that lends an air of respectability to a discipline. Think about Warren Buffett (and before him, Graham & Dodd) with respect to value investing. There were interesting comments in the thread that followed the initial post and I saw more than a few references to Cliff Asness and the work he has done at AQR. While acknowledging the work he has done with respect to momentum as a strategy, Asness himself referenced several academics who have written on the subject over the past few decades.

This is the video recording of the April 22nd Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche

04/22/21 2PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

• Adaptive exposure can stay in harmony with market environment  
• Risk tolerances are dynamic, moving with the market
• Indicators & investors operate across multiple timeframes

The word perspective has multiple definitions. The dictionary we have at our house lists eight. For me, the most relevant of those have to do with seeing the interrelationships of relevant facts and ideas as well as  those that deal with distant time frames & horizons.

When it comes to investing, keeping perspective is the difference between success  and failure. A successful approach to portfolio management can be built on a sturdy three-legged stool of perspective focusing on:

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

This is the video recording of the April 15th Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets

04/15/21 2PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

We were cooped up all winter, so we decided to head south. 

As soon as the kids got out of school for spring break, we loaded up the car, left Milwaukee, and headed for the Gulf of Mexico. 

It was a long trip -- and I had plenty of time to think along the way. In a world of momentum and trends, we want to remember where we’re coming from so we can better understand where we’re going.