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[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

April 13, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key takeaway: Despite the decreasing exposure of active equity managers, the weight of the evidence continues to lean toward a neutral sentiment backdrop that supports a much needed reset, allowing optimism to rebuild moving forward. Investment managers may be pulling back from the market, but equity ETF inflows have reached record levels. This past month inflows reached over $80 billion, the highest level over a one month period. This may suggest excessive investor positioning but inflows can remain high for extended periods of time before negatively impacting the market. Another piece of information that points to growing optimism is The Consensus Inc. Bullish Sentiment Index as it reached 74% last week, it’s highest level since early 2018. These pockets of investor optimism, within the broader neutral setting, allude to the nature of the recent unwind.

Sentiment Chart of the Week: Sentiment Reset

[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes & Breadth Trends

April 12, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: New highs bring out the bulls. Excessive optimism offset by broad market strength in the US & around the world. Despite Fed assurances of patience, rising bond yields will soon put pressure on the liquidity backdrop.

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

April 12, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Bifurcation Looms In The Currency Complex

As the US Dollar has caught a bid in recent weeks, our custom equal-weight index of the G-10 currencies is finding resistance at a perfectly logical level. We’re receiving bifurcated signals from the currency complex all-in-all, as many risk-on currencies are approaching key inflection points. In saying this, the currencies that have held up the best during the Dollar’s recent bout in strength have been those more closely tied with commodity-rich economies. This adds credence to our global growth and Commodity Supercycle thesis.   

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report

April 11, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level. By analyzing the short-term data in these reports we can take a more tactical view in order to better understand and gain insight into the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro

Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Learning to Swing at the Fat Pitches

April 7, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Baseball is back -- another sign that life is returning to normal. 

I’m already thinking about heading to the ballpark to see the Brewers play in person (even though my son isn’t thrilled that they changed the name from Miller Park to American Family Field).

I wasn't much of a baseball fan growing up. In fact, I never progressed beyond Tee-ball. Washington didn't have a team at the time and rooting for the team from Baltimore seemed to be out of the question. After moving to Milwaukee as an adult, I was surprised to hear the actor from "Mr. Belvedere" calling the games on the radio. Little did I know that Bob Uecker, a Milwaukee legend, was a baseball guy first and an actor second. 

Despite my lack of on-field experience, I’ve enjoyed watching my son progress through the Little League ranks.

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

April 6, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key takeaway: Despite the decreasing exposure of active equity managers, the weight of the evidence continues to lean toward a neutral sentiment backdrop that supports a much needed reset, allowing optimism to rebuild moving forward. Investment managers may be pulling back from the market, but equity ETF inflows have reached record levels. This past month inflows reached over $80 billion, the highest level over a one month period. This may suggest excessive investor positioning but inflows can remain high for extended periods of time before negatively impacting the market. Another piece of information that points to growing optimism is The Consensus Inc. Bullish Sentiment Index as it reached 74% last week, it’s highest level since early 2018. These pockets of investor optimism, within the broader neutral setting, allude to the nature of the recent unwind.

Sentiment Chart of the Week: Economic Activity and Risk Appetite

[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes & Breadth Trends

April 5, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche & Ian Culley. 

Key Takeaway: The overall market continues to digest gains within a larger structural advance. Market sectors that relate to tangible goods push to new highs. Traditional safe-haven assets fail to ensure safety.

Financial, Energy, Industrial, and Material sectors continue their reign in our relative strength rankings, while mid-cap groups narrowly surpassed small-caps to command the top-tier of our industry group rankings. Though more defensive sectors continue to have the best relative strength on a short-term basis, Technology and Consumer Discretionary are starting to pick up in the near term as well. Small-cap deterioration persists at the industry group level, whereas large and mid-caps improve.     

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report

April 4, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza & Grant Hawkridge

Don't miss this weeks Momentum Report; our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector and Industry Group level. As a reminder, we analyze this shorter-term data within the context of the structural trends at play.

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

April 2, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Many financial assets made new highs in the first quarter. Gold and bonds did not. The drawdown they have experienced since their August highs has been remarkable - eclipsing 20% in the case of bonds, and approaching that level in the case of gold. In the Wall Street Journal’s list of Q1 winners and losers, long-term US bonds came in dead last (with a quarterly decline of 14%). For many conservative investors, this is their safe money and, especially for bonds, thought to be risk-free. The behavioral response to this will be interesting to track and may put further pressure on outdated passive portfolio management approaches.