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Relative Strength In Non-Bank Financials

August 3, 2019

Tuesday's Mystery Chart received a lot of responses, with most of you were erring on the long side.

Now, let's look at the chart and its related theme.

Here's SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd. attempting to break out above its post-IPO base while the more traditional "banking stocks" are being hit hard. Sure the price action is a bit choppy, but it's not going down like many other stocks in the sector and market.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

The reason this chart stood out to us is that the relative strength is obvious and suggests that these stocks will lead to the upside once the market gains its footing. As long as prices are above their recent lows of 732, the bias is to the upside towards 952.

Time To Get Social?

August 1, 2019

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Tuesday's Mystery Chart is one of my favorite charts right now, so thank you all for your feedback and participation.

I received a lot of answers, but I'd say 2/3 of you were buyers and the other 1/3 were sellers.

With that as our backdrop, let's get into it.

Healthy Market or Impending Doom?

August 1, 2019

This is the question I often ask myself. In which direction is there the most risk? Are we better off looking for stocks to buy or looking for stocks to sell? There is no need to make this complicated. Where are the probabilities of success skewed in our favor?

You're well aware by now that I spend a lot of time looking through charts in the U.S. and around the world. We have Indexes, Sectors, Stocks and other assets throughout My Chartbook. One thing I learned a long time ago is to also pay attention to the bellwethers. It's a word that gets thrown around a lot, but we take it a little more seriously around here. There are only a few of them and today I want to draw your attention specifically to what is happening in shares of J.P. Morgan.

[Chart of The Week] Cap-Segment Divergence Continues

August 1, 2019

Today we're looking at a chart that highlights a major divergence that's plagued the Indian stock market since January 2018.

We've spoken about this topic in the past, but keep drilling it home every few months because it remains one of the key reasons why Indian Equities as an asset class are struggling.

Pre-FOMC Charts To Watch

July 31, 2019

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Today will be a "big" day for markets as the Federal Reserve will announce their decision on the new target Federal Funds Rate.

Currently, markets are pricing in a roughly 80% chance of a 25bp cut and a 20% chance of a 50bp cut. This means market participants have assigned 0% odds to rates remaining where they are after today's meeting.

We've been pretty clear over the last few months about where we stand regarding the different asset classes, so there's not much left to do other than wait and see how prices settle by the end of the week.

With that said, here are a few charts we're watching through Friday's close.

Video: Intermarket Relationships For Interest Rate Analysis

July 29, 2019

In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I discuss the Intermarket Relationships that help identify the next direction for US Interest Rates. These assets include Regional Bank Stocks, Utilities, Real Estate Investment Trusts, Copper, Gold and TIPS among others. Which way are Rates heading next?

What Are "The Junkies" Doing?

July 25, 2019

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Tuesday's Mystery Chart is one of my favorite charts right now, so thank you everyone for your feedback and participation.

I received a lot of answers, but most of you were buyers and the rest were split between doing nothing and selling.

With that as our backdrop, let's get into it.

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The Energy Conundrum

July 25, 2019

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

We've been watching some of the Energy ETFs we track most of this year for potential mean-reversion opportunities on the long side.

We recently discussed for our Institutional Clients an opportunity in the Small-Cap Energy ETF (PSCE), which rallied 17.50% from its 2018 lows before reversing back to those levels again.

The main issue in Energy remains that there appears to be an attractive mean reversion opportunity at the ETF level, but when we drill down into individual stocks there aren't many clean setups...making it difficult to identify what the main drivers of this move higher would be.

Let's take a look.

For the purpose of this exercise, we're going to look at Oil Services ETF (OIH) because its risk management level is the cleanest of the Energy subsectors.