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Materials Break Out

March 28, 2024

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

A major theme we've witnessed in recent weeks is a shift in leadership as sector rotation continues to spread across the US equity market.

One could argue it is more a general broadening of the rally than it is rotation.

Regardless, one of the major beneficiaries has been Materials.

With commodity markets getting back in gear, industry groups from copper and steel to agricultural inputs are showing strength again.

With broad participation beneath the surface, this is a group we want to be adding long exposure too in the coming days and weeks.

RA Capital Reports a $13 Million SPRY Buy

March 28, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant insider transaction on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by RA Capital Management.

The investment firm reported a purchase of $13.2 million in ARS Pharmaceuticals Inc $SPRY.

Back when I was a Gold bug...

March 28, 2024

In the early stages of my Wall Street career, it was cool being a Gold Bug.

All my heroes were Gold bugs.

I learned in the early 2000s that pricing assets in Gold helped put market trends into context.

The Dow/Gold ratio was the ultimate Gold Bug Chart at the time.

You can see the Dow/Gold ratio here plotted in black, compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Avg itself overlaid in green.

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2 to 100 Club (03-27-2024)

March 28, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

As most of you know, we use various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.

It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

3 Divergences To Watch

March 27, 2024

There are 3 big divergences right now that I think we want to keep a close eye on.

The first ones comes straight from Papa Dow.

We're looking at a classic Dow Theory Divergence between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average.

We've seen these sorts of things before major market tops. You saw it in 2000, you saw it in 2008, you saw it in 2015 and you saw it in 2020.

In this particular case, you're seeing new highs from the Dow Industrials but lower highs in the Transports:

Director Ragatz Reports a $1 Million GO Purchase

March 27, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant insider transaction on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Erik D. Ragatz, director of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp $GO.

Ragatz reported a purchase of roughly $1 million in GO shares.

Apple Down Half a Trillion

March 27, 2024

What was once the world's largest company by market-cap has lost half a trillion dollars in value, in what feels like a split of a second.

Boy was that was fast.

Half a Trilly. Gone. Just like that.

So just to put things in perspective, for those of you who might not realize how much money that amounts to, there are only 13 companies on the planet worth over half a trillion dollars.

Apple lost half a trillion in value in just a few months.

Here it is making new 28-month lows today relative to the S&P500:

Jerry Jones Reports a $100 Million CRK Purchase

March 26, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant insider transaction comes in a Form 4 filing by Blue Star Exploration Corp. and director Jerry Jones, owner of the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys.

Blue Star and Jones revealed a roughly $100 million purchase in Comstock Resources Inc $CRK.

What if it's NOT a top?

March 26, 2024

One of my favorite setups is when you have a major "top" formation, that doesn't actually turn into a reversal pattern and top for the market.

A recent example was in shares of Disney.

If you guys recall, this one looked like a major top, sentiment was down in the dumps, and we were buyers at 80.

Here we are with Disney at 120 and hitting new 52-week highs.

I gotta tell you, this setup in Energy looks exactly like that.

Look at this chart below - it's got all the hallmarks of a top:

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The Minor Leaguers (03-25-2024)

March 25, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list now, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

US Dollar: Turn Down For What?

March 25, 2024

That was the highest weekly close for the US Dollar Index since early November.

The trend has been higher for the US Dollar throughout the entire 1st quarter of 2024.

Remember, the Dollar bottomed towards the end of December in 2023.

So how much higher can the Dollar go?