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Chart of the Day: The Catalyst

August 22, 2022

The market has set the stage.

From a seasonal perspective, the back half of the year should be strong.

When you consider the bearish sentiment readings we're coming off of this summer, a massive shift in sentiment into year end makes perfect sense.

We've seen the breadth improvement, as we get more and more stocks making new short-term highs, and now sector rotation has started to kick in.

SO WHAT'S THE CATALYST?

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Is Risk Appetite on Board?

August 19, 2022

From the Desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza

Stocks have enjoyed a powerful rally off their summer lows, as bulls have been in control for about two months now.

A lot of technical damage has been repaired during this time. 

The outlook from sentiment and seasonality assure us the environment is ripe for a bottom. 

Breadth thrusts are stacking up and suggesting we could be in the early stages of a new bull market.

And risk appetite is gradually reentering the market, supporting the bullish price action.

Today, we'll review one of our favorite intermarket relationships, the discretionary versus staples ratio. 

By comparing these two consumer segments, we garner valuable insights about the current market environment and risk appetite in particular.

Here's the large-cap Consumer Discretionary $XLY versus Consumer Staples $XLP ratio:

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International Hall of Famers (08-19-2022)

August 19, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

A Brief Note on a Meme Stock Massacre

August 19, 2022

The 13D that has everyone’s attention today is not going to be on our list. That’s because we’re looking for insider buying, not insider selling.

Which brings us to meme stock master and Gamestop $GME Chairman Ryan Cohen.

The Outperformers

August 19, 2022

We debuted a new scan recently- The Outperformers.

The Outperformers is our newest scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. It’s the fastest, easiest way to find quality names that are primed for major moves.

The goal is that as the market rally progresses, the sector rotation within the market will reflect in this scan. So while our Top/Down Analysis helps us with the broader view of the market, this Bottom/Up scan makes sure that we catch the slightest change in sentiment.

Hot Corner Insider

The Inside Scoop (08-18-2022)

August 18, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

With market conditions turning increasingly favorable for the bulls, we’re flush with fresh breakouts and new highs in our Inside Scoop universe.

It’s been a long time since this has been the case.

Seeing individual stocks start to offer bullish setups again is some of the best confirmation we could get for the short-term breadth thrusts that have been stacking up in recent weeks.

If this truly was the bottom, then we will continue to see participation expand and there will be plenty more opportunities in the coming months.

Let’s dive in and talk about some of our favorite names that are actionable at current levels.

This Rally Have Legs?

August 18, 2022

We never actually know that we've been in a bull market until well after the bottom.

It's easy to look back and pinpoint the March 2020 low or the March 2009 low, for example, and say, "That's when the bear market ended and a new bull market started".

But in real time, when we're going through that transition, how can we possibly know?

Well, classic signs of the end of the bear markets are things like historically bearish sentiment extremes and washout breadth levels.

We obviously had both of those as our sentiment readings this summer were the most pessimistic since the Great Financial Crisis, and only 14% of stocks on the NYSE were in uptrends (compared to almost 90% entering 2021).

Those are the things you see just before the market turns.

Now, what are the things you see just after a market turn, around the 2nd inning or so?

Momentum thrusts.

Relentless buying pressure coming off historic selling. And that's precisely what we've been seeing over the past month.

Bill Gates Buys More ECL

August 18, 2022

The largest insider buy on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by Bill Gates.

Gates revealed an additional purchase worth $25 million in Ecolab $ECL, as he continues to add to his position.

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2 to 100 Club (08-17-2022)

August 17, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.