Key Takeaway: A sentiment unwind can be constructive if it bends but doesn't break. That is, if volatility squeezes out some excessive optimism without ushering in pessimism. On the other hand, when it breaks it becomes like water through a dam, creating a messy and, at times, chaotic environment. So far the unwind from the speculative extremes of early 2021 has been orderly and has not broken through. But pressure is building and the dam must hold if we want to still talk about rotational churning and not move on to discussing sustained cyclical weakness. That's the challenge for 2022.
Key Takeaway: Investor sentiment surveys are showing waning optimism as 2022 gets underway but there is still little evidence of fear. From a flow and positioning perspective, the 2021 excesses have not been unwound. Equity ETFs continue to record huge inflows even as households have near-record exposure to equities and stocks trade at never before seen valuations. The resolution to these imbalances could come more from rotation than from an outright unwinding. While risk appetite in the US is fading (particularly for the speculative names that were surging higher at this time last year), currency markets suggest renewed interest in global assets. Overseas equities and commodities are gaining strength. They could provide a needed alternative if investors really start to sour on US equities.
Key Takeaway: Year-end strength in stocks alleviated some of the concern that had crept into investors’ collective psyche. Short-term sentiment swings aside, investors remained positioned aggressively long stocks at a time when strategic risks remain high. December set a monthly record for equity ETF inflows and that price chasing pushed equity valuations to some of their highest levels on record. The optimism in positioning is not reflected in the sentiment surveys. But if the unwinding in the speculative bubble that peaked early last year gains steam, look for a lack of optimism to be replaced with outright pessimism, followed by a re-positioning of assets.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Commodities soar but struggle for attention
Key Takeaway: The sentiment backdrop is more characterized by a lack of optimism than widespread pessimism. This is in sharp contrast to the experiences of December 2020 and 2019. In those instances, too much holiday cheer led to hangovers in the year that followed (don’t forget, new highs peaked early in 2021 and many areas have been a sideways mess for months now). The current sentiment backdrop is not dissimilar to (though less extreme than) what was experienced in December 2018. Intense selling that month had investors thinking more about the Grinch than Santa Claus. While probably won’t get widespread pessimism this time around without further volatility - but if we do and investors throw in the towel on stocks, it could ultimately help light a fire that leads to early year breadth thrusts like what we experienced in early 2019.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
We study a wide variety of sentiment data as we incorporate many different indicators into our day-to-day analysis.
In its simplest form, sentiment tells us how certain market participants or investors feel about the market.
Are investors feeling bullish and increasing their exposure to risk?
Or, are investors feeling fearful and positioning defensively?
More often than not, these are contrarian indicators that work best when at extremes.
One of our favorite sets of sentiment data comes from a weekly report published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It is called the Commitment Of Traders, or COT report, and it simply outlines how various participants are positioned in futures markets.
We get lots of questions regarding how we analyze the COT report, so let’s talk about two of the main ways we find value in this information.
Key Takeaway: We have seen some evidence of fear on a shorter-term basis, but still plenty of optimism (and risk) from a longer-term positioning perspective. If we had to sum up the current sentiment backdrop with one data point it would be the AAII survey that shows even split between bears and bulls. Sentiment is neither here nor there and that leaves the door open to a more complete unwinding in optimism at a time of year when the market tends to be filled with holiday cheer. Combine that with increasing headwinds from deteriorating breadth and the trend in earnings revisions turning lower, and the sentiment shifts of 2021 look increasingly incomplete as we move toward 2022.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Earnings Estimates Rolling Over
Key Takeaway: Volatility is on the rise and the bulls are in retreat. The recent downside pressure on risk assets has driven investors to take caution. Yet, pessimism remains subdued as volatility was unable to stoke real fear. Now that the market is beginning to rebound, the bullish case needs to prove it deserves the benefit of the doubt. Price needs to justify the risk appetite that still lingers and participation needs to expand. On the flip side, another spike in volatility could woo the bears out of their seats and onto the dance floor. The market finds itself at a critical juncture heading toward year end. The action that unfolds in the coming weeks could well shape investors' approach to risk in 2022.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Despite Some Caution, Investors Still Love Risk
