Key Takeaway: Fear and concern are at the tip of every investor's tongue, yet their eyes remain on the market. For all the pessimism suggested by sentiment surveys, there’s still a great deal of hope as the desperate search for the bottom continues. Yes, put call ratios are on the rise but that’s mostly driven by falling call activity as last year’s speculative exuberance evaporates. Also, investors continue to favor equities over more defensive assets such as bonds and cash despite what they say. Caution remains warranted until attitudes change or market participants are forced to avert their gaze out of disgust. After we see evidence of improved price action (and likely a series of breadth thrusts), accumulated pessimism becomes fuel for a rally, but the timing of that turn is anybody’s guess at this point.
Key Takeaway: The disconnect between what investors say and what they do continues to be overlooked by sentiment indicator tourists. While consumer sentiment (what they say) is near its lowest levels on record, household equity exposure (what they are doing) remains elevated. Moreover, many are trying to call peak pessimism (with no evidence that it has reversed) as a catalyst for a market bottom (with no evidence that the conditions for a sustainable rally are in place). Sentiment is a condition and that condition right now shows fear and concern continuing to build. Being contrary to a crowd that has not turned can lead to getting trampled.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Learn Volumes By Looking Beneath The Surface
Key Takeaway: The unwinding of a liquidity-fueled speculative bubble is weighing on investor sentiment, pushing many indicators into areas that signal excessive pessimism. The challenge in the current environment is the disconnect between how investors say they are feeling and what (if anything) they are doing about it. Popular sentiment surveys are so widely watched that they seem to be producing more noise than signal. This makes less widely followed surveys (like those from Consensus and NAAIM) more useful. ETFs overall have begun to experience outflows, but there is still plenty of evidence that investors are looking for ways to increase equity exposure.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Buying Weakness Isn’t Evidence Of Fear
Key Takeaway: At last week’s CMT Symposium, the lack of bulls and high number of bears on the AAII survey was probably the most oft-cited single statistic by the symposium speakers. This week’s data confirms that pessimism. II bears reached their third highest level in the past decade and put/call ratios haven’t been as high as they are now since the COVID crash. Beneath the surface, however, there is evidence that investors haven’t actually thrown in the towel. The AAII Asset Allocation survey for April shows that while they said they were bearish last month, individual investors were actually increasing equity exposure. The spike in the put/call ratios meanwhile has more to do with collapsing call volume than surging activity in puts. Bearish sentiment extremes are difficult to identify in real-time, that’s why it’s typically best to go with the crowd until it has reversed.
Key Takeaway: The lack of a meaningful rebound in price sustains a subdued atmosphere across the market. Sellers continue to drive prices lower and equity put/call ratios are on the rise. But due to the overwhelming decline in call volume this speaks more to a lack of risk appetite than outright fear. While pessimism is certainly present and has reached levels associated with opportunity, there is still plenty of room for sentiment to unwind. Current conditions carry significant risks with lackluster price action and equity ETFs starting to experience net outflows (three weeks in a row and four of the past five weeks). Simply put: we have not seen significant evidence of capitulation. Just because the recent market environment has been tough doesn’t mean it can’t get worse.
Key Takeaway: That investors are in a dour mood is not in doubt. We just saw the fewest bulls on the AAII survey since 1992 and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is about as low as it has ever been. This week has brought news that US equity ETF’s have had outflows in three of the past four weeks. If this is just a pause in what some have called the persistent bid fueled by a move toward index investing, then this too is a bullish development. If, on the other hand, it represents the early stages of passive equity investors becoming disgruntled and looking for other options, then consider it a meaningful increase in equity market risk. Time will tell, but price and breadth improvements would help assuage these concerns. Either way, pessimism is a condition that needs a catalyst to spark a rally. It’s a pile of firewood, but for now it remains unlit.
Key Takeaway: Renewed selling pressure brings an air of disappointment rather than fear. Lackluster price action, an absence of a meaningful breadth thrust, and an overall risk-off environment leave little to spark an optimistic outlook. We’ve seen bears from a survey perspective, and that has created the conditions for a rally. Now, we need to see an increase in bulls if a rally is to materialize into a bull market. Without a rebound in price it’s hard for bulls to get excited and a v-shaped recovery in optimism (like we saw in 2019 and 2020) becomes less likely.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Reversing From An Extreme
Key Takeaway: The rally off of the mid-March stock market lows has equity investors feeling better. Without upside follow through (in terms of price and/or risk appetite), moods could quickly sour. So far, evidence of follow through has been lacking. Taking a longer-term perspective, the pessimism that was seen earlier this year seems more consistent with frustration that the stocks one owns aren’t going up rather than a deep-seated desire to reduce exposure and avoid equities altogether. Equity funds continue to see inflows, stocks are expensive relative to earnings and household exposure to equities has remained at historically high levels. Without these conditions unwinding, short-term mood swings may be even more sensitive to price changes than they normally are.
Key Takeaway: Price action has a way of changing sentiment, and the recent bout of strength has brought signs of hope. Optimism is on the rise with an uptick in bulls, a rebound in both the II and AAII bull-bear spreads, and an increase in exposure by active equity managers. Yet, bears linger and the drop in put/call ratios is driven by decreasing put activity. This speaks to less of a risk-off tone rather than a definitive sign of risk-on behavior. Though optimism is in the air, it’s going to take further improvements in trend, momentum, and breadth for bears to change their tune in support of a sustained rally.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Breadth Backdrop Improving
Key Takeaway: Investors are identifying with fear and pessimism as bears dominate the surveys. But we have yet to see the type of pessimism that drives market participants to do something about it. The disconnect between what investors are saying and what they are actually doing is evident in the juxtaposition of bearish surveys and elevated stock allocations. This speaks to an underlying confidence that remains unbroken and a lingering optimism susceptible to further unwind. Combined this with lackluster breadth readings, our global trend indicators nearing new lows, and a general lack of risk appetite and it’s difficult to claim the unwind in sentiment is complete.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Unwind Complete When Appetite Returns
Key Takeaway: There is abundant focus on weekly and monthly surveys showing evidence of investor pessimism with regard to equities. This is at odds with the strategic positioning indicators showing that stocks are expensive and households are historically over-exposed to equities (relative to bonds, but also relative to bonds plus cash). The last two times that II bears exceeded bulls (in 2019 and 2020), household asset allocation data showed only 53% exposure to equities. As of the end of 2021, it was at 62%, an all-time high. So while investors may be identifying themselves as bearish, there is little evidence that investable cash is on the sidelines. With the Fed now raising rates and the market re-considering valuation levels, this lack of available firepower could weigh on equities. Whether today’s pessimism represents a cyclical extreme remains to be seen.
Key Takeaway: Put/call ratios are high, there are more bulls than bears on both the AAII and II surveys (a rarity over the past decade) and active investment managers have slashed equity exposure. If the conditions that have been in place since the Financial Crisis lows (which occurred this week in 2009) are still in place, it is hard to argue that sentiment is not a meaningful tailwind for equities and is fuel for a rally. Two cautions: Sentiment is a condition, but rarely a catalyst. This means price action needs to improve to bring bulls back on board. But more significantly, there is still evidence that the speculative unwind that began last year is still ongoing and strategic positioning indicators show little improvement that would indicate longer-term risks are subsiding. Those get exacerbated as the Fed starts to raise interest rates and withdraw liquidity.
