Displaying 1 - 12 of 101

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report: Just Catching Their Breath

March 8, 2023
JC Parets

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche

Investors had second thoughts about stocks last week, with sentiment dropping across the board. This week’s Investors Intelligence survey shows a healthy return to optimism as bears dropped to their lowest level in over a year and the bull-bear spread moved back above its August high.   

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report: Higher Rates = Second Thoughts On Stocks

March 1, 2023
JC Parets

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche

When the Fed raised rates to 4.50% in early February, the market was expecting that any additional tightening this Spring would be taken back (and then some) and that by the end of the year the Fed Funds Rate would be at 4.25%. Now, the market is pricing in a year-end Fed Funds Rate of at least 5.25%. Over the course of a month, market expectations for rates have shifted higher by a full percentage point.     

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report: Moving Away From Persistent Pessimism

February 15, 2023
JC Parets

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche

Last week was the first time in 45 weeks that the weekly AAII survey showed more bulls than bears. The most recent stretch of pessimism did not eclipse the Financial Crisis in terms of intensity (the bull-bear spread bottomed last year at -43%, versus -51% in March 2009).  But it did set the record for persistence.

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report: Seeing Is Believing

February 8, 2023
JC Parets

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Bulls on the Investors Intelligence survey continued to climb while bears fell for the fifth week in a row. The bull-bear spread has now decisively cleared its August high as investors move to embrace the stock market rally.    

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report: Investors Confront Unfamiliar Weakness

January 11, 2023
JC Parets

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Over the course of 2022, the two-year (8-quarter) return for the aggregate household portfolio dropped from one of the highest levels in over 40 years to underwater for the first time in over a decade.     

Why It Matters: Sentiment soured in 2022 but investors largely stuck with their equity exposure. They choose not to meaningfully increase their exposure to bonds or cash (and commodity funds actually experienced outflows last year). Now investors are reviewing portfolios that didn’t just experience a bad year, but are actually down over the past two years. This is unfamiliar territory for a generation of investors who are not used to sustained weakness and who see US large-cap equities as the only game in town. 

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report: Have Equities Lost It?

December 14, 2022
JC Parets

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Household equity exposure (as a percentage of total liquid assets) fell again in the third quarter dropping from 56% to 54%. It was at its highest level ever (62%) coming into this year and remains high by historical standards (90th percentile).