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(Freshly Squeezed) Walgreens: The Road To Recovery 🍋📈

December 15, 2024

The best short squeezes happen when sentiment is thoroughly washed out, and it's difficult to picture a scenario where things can get worse.

This is the playbook we've followed for some of our best trades this cycle. Just look at how we nailed the bottoms in Carvana and Coinbase in late 2022. 

We think Walgreens Boots Alliance is setting up for a similar face-ripping rally like those mentioned above, and here's why:

 

Walgreens Boots Alliance was added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in 2018 and replaced General Electric. Less than 6 years later and over 60% lower, the eggheads at S&P Dow Jones Indices decided to give WBA the boot.

This removal coincided with the resolution of a multi-decade distribution pattern and an additional 60% downside in the following months.

Last week, the WSJ reported that...

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(Commodities Weekly) Turning the Bull Loose 🐂📈

December 13, 2024

President-elect Donald Trump rang the bell at the New York Stock Exchange this week, and it was reminiscent of the times when Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush went to the NYSE years ago.

The infamous Reagan quote, "We're going to turn the bull loose," immediately came to mind.

Considering that, it seems appropriate to talk about bulls today because of their positive correlation to economic growth.

Live cattle futures and bond yields have danced together for decades:

 

As you can see, cattle futures and bond yields are structurally similar but sometimes diverge from one another. In the lower pane, we've included the 200-day rolling correlation to highlight the past (and current) divergences in price.

The biggest problem with correlation analysis is that it doesn't tell us which direction the lines will likely go next.

However, the primary trends have been higher since the 2020 low, and the odds favor that the primary uptrends will eventually reassert themselves.

And we think that's currently underway, with live cattle futures closing this week at the highest price in history.

We've been...

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The Hall of Famers (12-13-2024)

December 13, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

 

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we...

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2 to 100 Club (12-11-2024)

December 11, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

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The Short Report (12-10-2024)

December 10, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

...
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These Short Sellers Are Cruisin' For A Bruisin'! 🍋📈

December 7, 2024

Speculative technology stocks have been mooning in recent weeks. Many of these stocks have rallied over 100% in the last month alone. 

Today, we're outlining a technology stock that rallied 700% in half a year after pivoting from blockchain infrastructure to high-performance computing. In other words, they pivoted from crypto to AI.

After consolidating for over a year, the stock put the finishing touches on a textbook basing pattern last week and is beginning a fresh leg higher.

But it's not just the chart that has us excited... the short sellers have gotten way too greedy, and we're going to exploit their weakness.

Let's get into the details:

 

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(Commodities Weekly) These Setups Are Merry & Bright🎄

December 6, 2024

The New York Stock Exchange held its annual Tree Lighting Event this week. It was spectacular, as always.

But we're not here to talk about pine trees or LED lights. We're here to talk about commodities.

The NYSE has an array of vehicles to trade, most being equities.

They also have several commodity funds, which happen to offer asymmetric risk versus reward opportunities at current levels. Let's talk about them.

Our first setup is the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund $DBA:

 

The top five holdings are cocoa (14.8%), coffee (13%), live cattle (11.9%), sugar (11.6%), and corn (11.4%), several of which we've recently discussed.

As you can...

2 to 100 Club,
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2 to 100 Club (12-04-2024)

December 4, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

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The Minor Leaguers (12-02-2024)

December 2, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...

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(Commodities Weekly) Thankful For Higher Prices

November 29, 2024

My cousin wasn't asking me about crypto during this year's Thanksgiving feast. 

Instead, he wanted to know which commodity to buy after the historic cocoa trade.

Without hesitation, I told him, "coffee."

And I really believe that!

Let's talk about why.

Our Soft Commodity Index is testing a critical level of interest:

 

The index peaked and rolled over in 2011 and has carved out a massive basing pattern in the years since then. If and when the bulls resolve this pattern, we want to be long.

On a relative basis, soft commodities are printing fresh 52-week highs versus the broader commodity complex. This is precisely what we're looking for in a leadership group, and we expect this outperformance to continue for the foreseeable future.

Cocoa futures recently resolved a 45-year base and put the bears in a dirt nap, and we think coffee futures are up next:

 

As you can see, coffee is at its highest level since it peaked in 1977, following a face-ripping 600% rally in two years.

A close above 340 would mark the end of a nearly 50-year consolidation and the beginning of a new uptrend. 

And we suspect...

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Junior International Hall of Famers (11-28-2024)

November 28, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

 

Click table to enlarge view

And here’s how we arrived at it…

We removed laggards which are down 5% or more relative to the ACWI Ex. U.S. Index $ACWX over the trailing...

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Young Aristocrats (November 2024)

November 28, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That's why we're turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we're curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.

We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are "stocks that pay you to make money." Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

By...