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The Real Bond Crisis Isn’t in the U.S.

May 26, 2025

Yes, the U.S. had a rough 20-year auction. Yields on the 30-year almost retested their October highs, touching 5.15%. But that’s not the real story.

The real bond crisis is in Japan.

This week, Japan saw its worst 20-year bond auction since 1987. Long-end JGBs—30s and 40s—are ripping to all-time highs. Not because of inflation or growth. Because no one’s buying.

 

Life insurers, once the backbone of demand, are out. Solvency regulations crushed their appetite. Reinsurers are selling. The market is flooded with supply, and demand is structurally broken.

Now add fiscal stress, political risk, and an election promising tax cuts—and the bond vigilantes are wide awake.

This isn’t a local issue. Goldman says Japan’s long-end move added 80 bps of pressure to global yields. What’s happening in the U.S. isn’t just about the Fed. It’s about Japan breaking.

When the most conservative central bank starts losing control, that’s not background noise. That’s the alarm bell.

Bond dysfunction doesn’t just mean volatility.

It means inflation.

Because when buyers disappear… you print.
And when you print into a supply-constrained world…...

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(Commodities Weekly) From Boom to Bust: What’s Next for Black Diamonds? 📈📉

May 23, 2025

Matt Warder appeared as the featured guest on today's Morning Show on Stock Market TV, which was an extra special treat for commodity junkies like us.

Matt is widely recognized as the best Coal analyst in the world.

He’s in constant contact with top executives in the space and is basically a walking commodity encyclopedia, especially when it comes to Black Diamonds.

We had the pleasure of meeting him in New Orleans for our Portfolio Accelerator event and walked away smarter for it.

So when Steve Strazza asked him what commodity he’s most excited about right now, we were all ears.

His answer? “Titanium.”

No hesitation.

Coming from someone with Matt’s pedigree in the Coal markets, that caught us off guard. 

But after looking at the charts, it makes a lot of sense why he didn't mention Coal.

The commodity has...
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International Hall of Famers (05-23-2025)

May 23, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important...

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2 to 100 Club (05-21-2025)

May 21, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
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Currency Report: Bounce To The Great White North

May 21, 2025

The Canadian dollar is catching a bid. 

And while the CAD rarely grabs headlines like the euro, pound, or yen, it’s no backbencher—it makes up 9% of the US Dollar Index $DXY, just behind the big three.

It flies under the radar of most investors, and I think that’s a big mistake.

Here’s why.

After years of sliding, the CAD/USD rallied off a major level of support near 0.68—a level that’s marked key turning points in both the currency and Canadian stocks for over a decade.

 

This bounce looks small now, but it matters.

We’ve talked a lot about how EM currencies tend to drive their respective stock markets. When a “peso” rallies, local equities tend to follow. That effect is stronger in emerging markets because of the heavier reliance on USD funding and the volatility of the currencies there.

Canada, on the other hand, has deep, liquid capital markets, a resource-heavy economy, and two major stock...

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The Short Report (05-20-2025)

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via...

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The Strazza Letter

Feeling Positive Energy

May 19, 2025

I’m liking energy more and more with each passing day.

And the bull thesis couldn’t be simpler.

It’s a raging bull market for stocks around the world. It’s being led by offense. 

Internals continue to improve. 

And like any bull cycle, as time passes and the market grinds higher, it drags a growing list of non-performers higher with it.

Some call it rotation, but it’s really just a broadening of participation over longer timeframes. 

What I mean is that more groups join the party as the bull market progresses. The ones that had previously not been working, start working. We see it every time.

In bull markets, the laggards catch up to the leaders. And not vice versa.

And it’s happening now, isn’t it?

Look at international markets. Even the worst-performing regions, like Southeast Asia and South America, are now working. They’re actually outperforming in the short-term.

And in the US, look at old laggards like small-caps, speculative growth, and transports. They are working too,...

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The Minor Leaguers (05-19-2025)

May 19, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...

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The Strazza Letter

Big Bases in Emerging Asia

May 17, 2025

We’re back from New Orleans, so I’m doing a lot of catching up this weekend.

When I was plowing through charts yesterday, I realized two appeal to me a lot more than the rest right now.

One of the things I always do at Portfolio Accelerator is share my best ideas for the coming months and quarters.

I’ll share some tactical opportunities and discuss the themes and areas of the market I’m interested in trading.

But I’ll also zoom out and talk about some of the fresh new uptrends I’m buying with a longer timeframe in mind.

I’ve been an Asia bull for some time now. China has already been the best idea at past conferences. BABA, BIDU, and TCEHY are currently conviction longs for this theme. 

Southeast Asia’s online retail giant, Sea Ltd $SE is another one I shared with our clients at one of last year’s events. It’s been a top international stock. It’s one of my largest long-term holdings...

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(Commodities Weekly) Holding the Line 🛡️

May 17, 2025

The S&P GSCI Commodity Index just bounced from a critical level… again.

You don’t need to be a technician to see the importance of 500 on this chart. 

It was the top in 2018. It was the ceiling again in 2021. 

Since then, it’s become the most important shelf of support in the entire commodity complex.

Now, after retesting this level multiple times in the last two years, we’re once again sitting on the edge.

Polarity is like magic 🔮 

Support and resistance are not random. 

This 500-level has acted as a magnet for prices in recent years. 

If this shelf gives way, it opens the door to a much deeper reset in the commodities market.

However, for now, the level is holding steady.

Let’s talk about what this index is made of...

The S&P GSCI is primarily focused on one thing above all else: Energy.

  • Energy makes up 57.4% of the index in 2025, led by: