From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Former resistance turns into potential support – and vice versa.

That’s Polarity 101. It’s a pattern found throughout the market. It doesn’t matter the asset class – Bitcoin or Berkshire. It’s simply human psychology at work. 

These levels often mark missed opportunities. And, in the process, they create price memory that fuels increased activity. Traders and investors are driven to transact at these levels, highlighting supply and demand zones that act as support or resistance.

Why does this matter right now?

Because gold futures have sliced through near-term support, careening toward a level etched in the minds of goldbugs everywhere…

I’m talking about the 2011 highs!

Gold futures recently undercut a key level marked by the February pivot highs and last month’s pivot lows – a polarity zone.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

"You can’t pay me enough to buy US Treasuries."

That’s the message from the bond market.

The result: a persistent rise in interest rates.

Classic intermarket ratios – copper versus gold, regional banks $KRE versus REITs $IYR, and the Russell 2000 $IWM versus the S&P 500 $SPY – all point to lower yields.

This has been going on for months. Some may argue that these ratios are broken or no longer carry significant insight into the direction of rates.

It may be true that the strong relationship between the above ratios and interest rates has indeed decoupled. 

But it’s not solely relative trends hinting at declining yields.

The stocks that benefit the most from a rising rate environment also look terrible on absolute terms…

The ProShares Equities for Rising Rates ETF $EQRR tells the story:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).   

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

The bears have found a new home: gold mining stocks.

Silver’s breakdown earlier this month raised the caution flag for the entire precious metals space. 

Less than two weeks later, gold futures and mining stocks are falling under the wrath of increased selling pressure. Precious metals bears are winning the battle as support levels fall to the wayside. 

Meanwhile, the bulls are reluctant to leave without a fight…

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. You can click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Watch out for cotton!

Back in February, I highlighted a bullish setup in cotton futures. 

Buyers were hammering a key retracement level from below. The way I learned it, "The more times a level is tested, the higher the likelihood it breaks."

Three months later…

The July contract is knocking on the door – again!

How polite.

Check out July cotton nearing the January 2022 closing high of 88.34:

That’s my level.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Tech stocks don’t care about the manufactured debt limit crisis. Nor are they bothered by the increasing probability of a rate hike next month.

Growth stocks seem concerned with only one thing – printing fresh highs.

The Tech sector ETF $XLK posted new 52-week highs yesterday. And the Communications ETF $XLC rallied within reach after taking out its Aug. ‘22 pivot highs. 

So where does that leave bonds and other long-duration assets? 

If these base breakouts across growth sectors hold, I imagine bonds have some serious catching up to do…

Why?

Growth stocks tend to trend with bonds since they’re both long-duration assets. Changes in interest rates directly impact US Treasuries and affect tech stocks more than other equities.

Check out the tight relationship between the Long-Term Treasury ETF $TLT and the Technology sector $XLK:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Dollar up… 

Everything else? 

Down.

Last Friday’s action sent flashbacks of 2022 across my screen.

It was all King Dollar last week as risk assets and bonds sold off in tandem.

But before we all get carried away talking about the next leg higher for the dollar, let’s zoom out to get a read on where the DXY truly stands…

In the middle of a short-term range.

The US Dollar Index $DXY finished last Friday, posting its best week since peaking in late September 2022.

But it’s been stuck between 105 and 101 since December:

The DXY might have gained 1.5% last week, but it’s stuck below a key retracement level. It’s a range-bound mess like much of the market despite the recent bout of strength. 

Sideways is the trend.