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International Hall of Famers (09-15-2023)

September 15, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...

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Buy Energy as the Dollar, Rates Rise

September 15, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Markets fluctuate to a relentless beat driven by fear, greed, and an incessant newsfeed.

Sometimes, they trend. 

But, more often than not, they churn sideways.

Unsurprisingly, “sideways” best describes most markets today.

The S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have gone nowhere in three months. 

Regardless, one uptrend remains intact…

The coordinated rise in the US dollar and interest rates.

Check out the overlay chart of the 10-year US Treasury yield $TNX and the US Dollar Index $DXY with a 21-day rolling correlation in the lower pane:

US yields and the dollar have been in near-perfect harmony since the Fed began raising interest rates last year.

Sure, they briefly fell out of step. But the two found their groove in early July.

The DXY challenges its year-to-date highs while the 10-year yield closes on its highest print in over a decade.

The result: Bonds continue to break down. Global currencies...

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[Options Premium] Merck Is Flatlining

September 15, 2023

The markets are telling us it still wants sideways for longer.

We know this script, and we know it's been working. So we're going to keep chopping this wood until the markets tell us to get more directionally aggressive.

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Junior Hall of Famers (09-14-2023)

September 14, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to our latest project, it couldn’t be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if the price is rising. That’s good enough for us.

The bottom line is it is a bull market. We...

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2 to 100 Club

2 to 100 Club (09-13-2023)

September 13, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.

It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point...

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Will the US Dollar Index Break Out? Track the Euro!

September 12, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Equities like a deadstick dollar.

But stocks can’t always get what they want – or “like.” 

A swift 5 percent gain in the US Dollar Index $DXY was not on the S&P 500’s wish list.

Yet that’s what the dollar served up following its mid-July failed breakdown

Unsurprisingly, stocks have struggled since, peaking less than two weeks after the dollar posted its year-to-date low.

The DXY is now challenging a critical overhead supply level as dollar bulls have once again lowered their horns.

But will they finally hook 'em by the end of the week?

We’ll know if the DXY decisively closes above 105.

That’s the level:

Meanwhile, investors and traders appear reluctant to relinquish the euro (the largest component of the US Dollar Index at 57.6% of the weighting). 

Perhaps US dollar bulls are making contact at the...

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Follow the Flow (09-11-2023)

September 11, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

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The Minor Leaguers (09-11-2023)

September 11, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to...

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All Star Charts Gold Rush

Cloudy With a Chance of Rain: Risk Appetite Wanes for Gold

September 11, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Precious metals deserve the benefit of the doubt.

These shiny rocks are in the early stages of their next secular bull run. But I won’t let my bullish bias detract from the obvious: Gold has seen brighter days.

Overhead supply dominates the charts while risk appetite cools and prices fall toward critical support levels.

Is it time to buy the dip? 

No, especially as investors focus on more attractive investments…

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Commodities Provide More Than Just Information

September 8, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I recently outlined five reasons to bet on energy.

While I stand by my line of reasoning, I did manage to leave out one overarching theme. And it’s an important one!

It’s a market theme that’s played out for almost three years, extending beyond energy to encompass commodities as an asset class.

I’m talking about the commodity-bond ratio…

Commodities relative to bonds was the most impactful high-level chart headed into 2021.

A major trend reversal favoring raw materials over US treasuries signaled a new, wild world on the horizon – a world characterized by inflation and rising interest rates. 

This shift in relative strength caught many investors off guard as commodities also outpaced stocks for the first time in over a decade.

Shockingly, commodities were back in the conversation as analysts struggled to deem the energy space a viable investment. (As if the price charts didn’t provide ample evidence.) 

Meanwhile, energy stocks...

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The Hall of Famers (09-08-2023)

September 8, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we sort the remaining names by their proximity to...

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Chinese Bonds Suggest Trouble Ahead

September 7, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Yields are rising worldwide. 

US treasuries continue to fall after a brief pullback in price. 

Now, Chinese government bonds are pressing toward fresh lows.

Sovereign debt epitomizes downside risk. And Chinese bonds are on the cusp of a significant breakdown – a breakdown that spells more trouble for global bond investors.

Check out the VanEck China Bond ETF $CBON:

CBON aims to track the ChinaBond China High Quality Index (debt mainly issued by the People’s Bank of China). And like US treasuries, Chinese government bonds are flirting with fresh multi-year lows.

I have been adamant regarding a bearish bias toward US bonds. (In fact, I think they’re an excellent short.

A similar outlook extends to Chinese government-issued debt if and when...