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Follow the Flow (10-17-2023)

October 17, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

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International Hall of Famers (10-13-2023)

October 13, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...

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What Will It Take for Crude to Break Down?

October 13, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Price must hold above key support levels when defining a range or uptrend.

It might sound simple. Yet investors often sideline these crucial levels in favor of the latest headline.

I read the news daily and support journalists fighting the good fight. However, I don’t incorporate what I read in the papers into my market analysis. 

Instead, I focus on price and the critical areas seared into the collective memory bank – support and resistance.

Perhaps you can guess my response when a reader recently asked, “What will it take for crude oil to break down?”

Price must undercut support!

Check out the daily crude oil chart:

The principle of polarity unfolds as former resistance turns support at approximately 83.25. That’s the level.

It’s difficult to...

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Here’s What To Own When the Dollar Slips Lower

October 11, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Price doesn’t move in a straight line.

Just don’t tell the US dollar, which has managed to post positive gains for 11 straight weeks

But the US Dollar Index $DXY is sporting its deepest drawdown since mid-July – a mere 0.2% – as buyers catch their breath.

Five down days and counting have my attention, though it doesn’t shift my bullish bias for King Dollar.

Not yet!

Check out last week’s DXY candle:

Buyers drove prices higher over the course of last week only to succumb to selling pressure by Friday’s close. 

The long upper shadow and small real body at the lower end of the range form a “northern doji” candlestick. It indicates the market is exhausted, explaining the continued selling pressure.

But it’s the first lower weekly close in 12 weeks. The DXY hasn’t gone on...

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2 to 100 Club

2 to 100 Club (10-11-2023)

October 11, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.

It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point...

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The Minor Leaguers (10-09-2023)

October 9, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new highs in...

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Follow the Flow (10-09-2023)

October 9, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

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All Star Charts Gold Rush

Is It Time To Buy Gold?

October 9, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

One day of buying pressure doesn’t change the situation with precious metals. 

Gold bugs were out in full force Friday, driving gold and silver to impressive gains that would excite even the least devout among them.

But don’t get your hopes up… 

Precious metals stopped falling at a logical level of support.

Good, old-fashioned price memory triggered a standard response – nothing magical.

More importantly, nothing bullish.

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Natty Gas Busts Loose!

October 6, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Each commodity market has unique supply and demand dynamics.

The result is a diverse set of assets offering a steady flow of trading opportunities.

Today, I’ll outline two promising trade setups – one long, one short.

Let’s start with a fan favorite…

Natty Gas!

Natural gas futures gained over 6% on Thursday, taking out a key pivot high.

Here’s the continuation chart posting its highest level since March:

Notice natty gas is finding support above a former resistance zone at roughly 2.835. 

On Wednesday’s "What the FICC?" I mentioned trading against Tuesday’s low based on this near-term support.

Price has ripped higher since, taking out a shelf of pivot highs and filling a downside gap from early September.

I’m now long the November contract with an initial...

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The Hall of Famers (10-06-2023)

October 6, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we sort the remaining names by their proximity to new 52-week highs.

This leaves...

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Junior Hall of Famers (10-05-2023)

October 6, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to our latest project, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

The bottom line is it is a bull market. We...

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Stocks Grapple With Bond Market Volatility

October 5, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Borrowing costs are increasing, and US Treasuries are tanking – again. 

Everyone knows it. Even my therapist commented on interest rates and the “terrible” economy.

The 30-year T-bond has hit our initial target. And the 10-year is within striking distance. 

So much for limited downside risk for the bond market. Perhaps the call for a 5.25 print on the 10-year yield by Christmas wasn’t aggressive at all.

But elevated yields aren’t the problem…

And I don’t care about the economy when it comes to market speculation.

Remember, we don’t trade the economy. We trade the markets or – more precisely – price.

Interest rates hung around decade highs earlier this year while the Nasdaq 100 enjoyed its best first half since its inception.

Stocks like it when...