From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

King Dollar is bouncing around as we approach Labor Day.

Last week’s strength is evaporating.

Meanwhile, global currencies claw back recent losses as cryptocurrencies and gold’s crazy cousin, silver, enjoy a much-needed boost.

It’s no secret that risk assets like a weaker dollar! 

But let’s put the current action into perspective before we get ahead of ourselves.

Remember, a single session doesn’t constitute a trend.

But it could mark a critical turning point…

The US Dollar Index $DXY violated a year-to-date downtrend line last week, breaking above its June pivot high:

And it did so while posting its first overbought reading (14-day RSI above 70) since its peak last fall.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’ve had the pleasure of driving cross country multiple times, covering every inch of I-10. 

I made so many memorable moments on those drives …

I pushed through white-out conditions in Kansas. (My brother had an appointment with the State Department in Washington D.C., and we couldn’t stop.)

I "accidentally" crossed into Juarez, Mexico, which turned into one helluva time!

And I picked up more than one speeding ticket on the reservation (highway patrol doesn’t play in Navajo country).

I somehow made it coast to coast every time.

While many details of those treks slip away with the years, I’ll always remember the Alamo.

I know, it’s funny. I didn't even go inside.

To be clear, my memory of the Alamo has nothing to do with the historic battle or the revisionist histories that have been written and rewritten since.

Instead, I picture a meager fort in the twilight – nothing more. A truly humble beacon of strength.

The understated image resurfaces in my mind's eye this week as I plan and plot the best way to trade gold.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley 

“Looks like cocoa and sugar are poised to break out.” 

That’s the first message I saw on my phone this morning as traders across the US were preparing for the upcoming session.

But I wasn’t ready to get behind a tactical move in either cocoa or sugar.

Instead, my full attention rests with one commodity on the precipice of an explosive rally…

Cotton.

Check out the weekly continuation chart of cotton futures:

My eyes have been fixated on cotton since early February.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I bought bonds last December and again in March.

I thought it was time to bring these beaten-down assets back into the fold as US Treasuries printed fresh six-month highs.

But I was wrong. 

Fast-forward to today, and the downtrend for bonds remains intact.

And those false breakouts last spring have led to fresh breakdowns as we head into the fall.

The 10- and 30-year futures are flashing sell signals as they undercut their respective March pivot lows.

Now, the shorter end of the curve is doing the same.

Here’s the two-year Treasury note completing a bearish continuation pattern:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar sits atop the heap.

Major global currencies, including the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, and the Singapore dollar, are limping lower against the greenback.

The long list could grow in coming sessions as momentum builds behind a sustained USD advance.

While the evidence suggests we lean in that direction, I always prepare to take the other side of a trade if and when the data changes.

So, what’s the best way to play a falling dollar?

Before I share my favorite trade setup, let’s look at the US Dollar Index $DXY: 

DXY is finding resistance at the July pivot highs and a downtrend line originating with the March peak.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended August 18, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold is hanging on for dear life.

Rising interest rates and a strengthening dollar create formidable headwinds for the shiny yellow rock.

I remain optimistic for the entire precious metals space, but hope is not a viable trading strategy – especially if gold undercuts its 2011 highs.

Some gold bugs may find it difficult to accept, but gold’s a short if and when it decisively closes below its prior commodity supercycle peak.

And it’s trading back at those former highs today…