US Treasury Bonds have been a market that we've been watching very closely over the past couple of months. Remember this had been a favorite short of mine since the Summer, but all of our downside targets were hit in the 4th quarter. Since then, it has no longer been a short, and we've been waiting for it to set up to be a long for a mean reversion. Here is what is now going on this week:
The year 2016 is now in the books. As market participants, it is our job to prepare for the coming quarter. We don't care much for year end targets. Those are just a marketing gimmick for wall street sell side firms. The media irresponsibly parades these historically wrong sell side analysts around on the tv and radio and have all sorts of gimmicky specials. We don't have time for that. We're here to make money in the market. So rather than making a list of the "Top 10" this or that, or blatantly making up a number to put as an S&P500 target for a year from now, I thought it would add value to walk you through my entire process as I prepare for the first quarter of 2017.
I could not be happier to see this rally in stocks all over the world. The Transportation stocks in particular have been especially impressive (See here: Transports 8/24/16). But I want to point to some of the rotation we've started to see in other asset classes since last week.
One of the characteristics of bull markets and strong uptrends is sector rotation. While Technology was the first to start leading the market higher in July, Financials and Transportation stocks have recently held the leadership duties. You can start to throw in Industrials the past few weeks into the leadership category as well. Meanwhile, some of the mega-cap names have held back Technology, at least temporarily, from continuing to make new highs. But when you look underneath the surface, I believe there is a much different story to tell.
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets. Transports and Copper continue to make new highs while US Treasury Bonds keep selling off on the back of higher interest rates. We'll discuss all of these issues and more.
This month's Conference Call will be held on Tuesday November 15, 2016 at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details: