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[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

May 10, 2021
Steve Strazza

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Smalls Signal An End To The Growth/Value Countertrend

One of the main themes we’ve seen unfold as the market has rallied off its recovery lows from last year is the rotation into value stocks and more cyclical areas of equity markets. We’re seeing it around the world too, and it’s also responsible for driving many other relative trends like that between small and large-caps and US vs ex-US equities.

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

May 7, 2021
JC Parets

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The headlines this week focused on the, for lack of  better word, carnage in some of the most speculative areas of the stock market. While late week rally attempts have taken some of the sting out of those declines, many of the hottest areas from 2020 are seeing more breakdowns than breakouts. While maybe not as exciting as SPAC’s and Innovative Tech companies, I’m paying attention to what’s going on in the Financials sector. The sector made new highs this week (as did Materials and Industrials), and its new high list expanded as well. The 75% of stocks in the sector making new 52-week highs is the highest in the decade’s worth of data we have available. Maybe I’m old-school, but leadership and broad support from Financials is not usually evidence of an overall market that is on the cusp of trouble.

Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: The Only True “Life Hack”

May 6, 2021
JC Parets

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The documentary "Jiro Dreams of Sushi" tells the story of a small Sushi counter operating near a subway platform in Japan. The movie glorifies routine -- the day-in, day-out dedication to doing the same thing over and over again. It’s these details and pursuit of perfection that make the dream. We see how Jiro’s sushi is the product of hours of labor and years of experience.

Russian novelist Fydor Dostoevsky understood this concept well, noting "Habit is the chief motive force” in his novel "The Brothers Karamazov". 

Dostoevsky and Jiro understand there are no shortcuts. Instead, the embodied consistency of habit is how we grow and make progress.

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

May 4, 2021
JC Parets

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key takeaway: Evidence of excessive optimism abounds. Recent articles in the Wall Street Journal provide anecdotes for the data: Conservative German savers are increasing their exposure to stocks and investors in the US are crowding into the market, focusing more on chasing returns than managing risks. Cyclical views trend and strategic positioning point to elevated risks but stocks have been buoyed by a favorable news backdrop (positive economic data surprises and upward earnings revisions) and resilient breadth. If these falter and investor appetite for risk fades, those areas of the market where speculative fever has burned the hottest could be the most vulnerable.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Long Equity Camp Crowded

[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes & Breadth Trends

May 3, 2021
JC Parets

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: New monthly highs reflect broad participation and a healthy rally. Stocks struggle to celebrate blowout quarters if future growth prospects are not bright. Elevated expectations bar could leave stocks & the economy victims of their own success.

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

May 3, 2021
Steve Strazza

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

China Dictates The Direction Of Many Diversified World Indexes

On a global scale, recent weakness has primarily been isolated to the Asia-Pacfic region. This region has in large part been weighed down by the Large-Cap Growth-heavy Chinese market; while many indices have decisively accelerated to the upside in recent months, China is still painfully below its YTD highs.

From our perspective, given the economic significance of China, we need to see buyers defend this key 45 level in the iShares China Large-Cap ETF. In this sense, the resolution from this level will likely dictate the bias for global markets in the coming weeks and months.

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

May 2, 2021
Steve Strazza

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

April 30, 2021
JC Parets

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The new high list on any given day has been unremarkable of late. So far in 2021, the most S&P 500 stocks making new highs on any given day has been 135 (27% of the index). The average for 2021 is closer to 50. Despite these lackluster daily readings more than half of the stocks in the S&P 500 have made new highs at some point in the past two weeks. Continued expansion in the number of stocks that have been making new highs reflects healthy broad market support.