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[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes & Breadth Trends

May 17, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Investors finding themselves with too much Technology exposure. Speculative unwind occurring as neglected areas of the market make new highs. Inflation concerns are overdone in the near term but represent a new reality for the coming decade.

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

May 17, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Will Bonds Follow The Path Of Bullion 

A few weeks ago, we put out what you could call a “lower conviction” trade idea in Gold Miners. The reason we did this was simple and boiled down to two things: 1. The risk/reward profile; and 2. The primary trend. The prior was simply too good to ignore as price tested a formidable level of former resistance turned support. And this was taking place within the context of an underlying uptrend. Fast forward to today, and that trade has worked out beautifully (see lower pane).

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

May 16, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. We can then put these near-term developments into the context of the big picture and glean insights into the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

May 14, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The one chart is actually two charts this week. On the left is the S&P 500 and the percentage of stocks in that index that are above their 200-day average (90%). On the right is the NASDAQ Composite and the percentage of stocks in that index that are above their 200-day average (50%). The contrast could hardly be more stark. Even as weakness has been seen in some of the largest sectors (like Technology), the S&P 500 is being supported by ongoing strength in cyclical values areas. The NASDAQ has little to no exposure to those sectors that are doing the best right now and is bearing the brunt of speculative excesses being unwound (the collapse in equity call options is evidence of this shift).

Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Farmer’s Market Timing

May 14, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

I planted most of the vegetables for the garden over the past couple of weeks. Seeds and seedlings. Neat rows and clustered groups. Into the raised beds they went.  

I don't know what the day to day (or week to week) fluctuations in the weather will be. But I do know that it is (finally) Spring. Planting as the air temperature rises and our daylight hours expand increases the likelihood of a bountiful garden later this summer. Leafy greens (kale, arugula, chard) were the first into the soil. They can withstand cooler temperatures than the cucumbers, peppers and tomatoes.

As a gardener, I have some understanding of the underlying trends and conditions that guide the seasons. Plant too soon and a late frost will kill off tender seedlings. Plant too late and the summer heat will sap the strength of plants without well-developed root systems. 

It's about knowing the growing environment, managing temperature risks and finding opportunities to increase vegetable production.

Some might dismiss this as a farmer’s market timing. I call it prudent.

Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: "It’s a Market of Sectors"

May 13, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

JC and I were talking about the market last week in one of our town hall meetings.

"It's a market of stocks," he said, offering up the old Wall Street adage about looking at market health by looking beneath the surface. 

I don't dispute the wisdom embedded in that comment. It's an adage for a reason.

But my response to JC was, "No, it's a market of sectors." 

Let me explain… 

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

May 11, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key takeaway: A peak within the NASDAQ (or the Technology sector) shows that pockets of speculative excesses are being unwound. There has been enough strength in the market elsewhere, as well as a still favorable earnings and economic data backdrop, to keep investors generally optimistic. In March, market volatility allowed optimism to retreat from excessive levels but not completely unwind. We may be seeing early indications that the current bout of volatility will have a more substantial impact on investor psychology. If so, the price reaction will likely not be as benign as was seen two months ago.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Unwinding Speculative Fervor

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

May 10, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. We can then put these near-term developments into the context of the big picture and glean insights into the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe: