Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Momentum Rebalance Heavy On Financials
One of the big lessons investors have been taught this year is that Growth is not Momentum. For many years, Growth-oriented sectors held the reigns of Momentum strategies. But that's not because the two are synonymous in any fundamental way. It's simply because growth stocks have been where the momentum is. In other words, they've been going up!
Well, that's changing and this is yet another data point that supports this view. After MSCI’s semi-annual rebalance of the Momentum Factor ETF $MTUM, Technology has shrunk from a 41% to 18% weighting, while Financials’ weighting has shot up from a measly 2% to 32%. Moreover, both Consumer Discretionary and Communications have shrunk in their weighting, while the other Value sectors - Industrials, Materials, and Energy - now represent a far more significant portion of the ETF.
Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
While new highs are being seen around the world (Europe, Frontier Markets) and in the US (Broker/Dealers, Real Estate, Energy), there is still plenty of attention on former leaders who are trying to reclaim their lost glory. A great example of that is the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). This fund peaked at the height of speculative fever in February and has since made a series of lower highs and lower lows. It’s now dealing with rejection as its latest rally attempt petered out shy of the confluence of the 50 and 200-day moving averages. When viewed in context of overall declining NASDAQ volume, it suggests stronger hands have been selling to weaker hands and they are the ones that are going to be left paying the tab at the end of the night.
This All Star Charts +Plus Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of largely binary decisions and tactical calls. Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard, this piece is designed to help active asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.
Key takeaway: Sentiment continues to shift away from optimism and toward pessimism, though as with anything it is not a straight line. Speculative activity is flaring up again this week, the trend in trading volumes and call activity suggests less risk appetite on the part of investors. Optimism unwind is happening in the context of elevated longer-term risks, with earnings growth expectations and valuations at elevated levels. A sideways summer that cools optimism and helps relieve valuation pressures could help pave the way for the resumption of a cyclical rally later this year.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Diminishing Highs
Key Takeaways: Economic data reflects pinched financial liquidity. US price trends are resilient even with momentum and breadth becoming more challenging. Rest of the world is taking on a leadership position versus the US, with developed Europe in the lead.
Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
A Big Retest For Small Caps
Since the March lows last year, SMIDs have been the clear leadership group with higher yields as a tailwind. However, this entire relative theme has cooled off as risk assets have consolidated along with interest rates. Considering last year’s major breakdown in Small-Caps relative to Large-Caps signaled lower rates, this is a critical time and place to witness a resolution either way.
From an intermarket perspective, we’ve seen our crucial stock and commodity ratios signal lower rates in the near future. Is this signaling a relative breakdown in Small-Caps? As always with markets, we need to play the cards we’re dealt. So while the longer-term outlook favors higher yields, we’re paying close attention to this resolution to signal a more immediate directional bias for these relative themes.
Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
We had fun with this one all week. We can frame it in the context of Ford’s aggressive foray into the EV market or more narrowly as an expression of suburbanite luxury truck preferences. It fits well within the growth to value conversation as well as “old is new and new is old” themes. Even if it’s not seen strictly as a pair trade, it reflects a shift in investor interest and preference. After establishing a big base versus Tesla (one which looks an awful lot like an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern), Ford is poised to break out and move into empty space.