From the Desk of Willie Delwiche

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Dynamic Portfolio Update: Our asset allocation models are tilting away from commodities, so we sold GLD in our cyclical portfolio (and replaced it with mid-cap equity exposure). With tactical risks rising, we raised some cash in our tactical opportunity portfolio.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

As good as the market looked in January, it looked that bad in February. The month began with the technical conditions for the re-birth of a bull market being met, but by the end of the month there was still little evidence of bull market behavior. If the Q4 turn is going to prove resilient, it’s time for the bulls to step up and show that the path of least resistance is indeed higher. That means firmly embracing a rally that has faltered under the ongoing weight of macro concerns and is on the cusp of breaking down.

Our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard fills in the details and includes a few charts that have our attention heading into March. 

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we’re currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Don’t Ignore Coal

Our equal-weighted custom index of the largest coal stocks reached new highs last week. If this breakout sticks, coal is a group we want to keep leaning on for long exposure.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

Even with the impressive bounce heading into the weekend, the S&P 500 last week didn’t even get back up to its December high. Meanwhile nearly 10% of the industry groups in the S&P 1500 and more than 10% of global markets closed at new 52-week highs. That’s the longest new high list by the rest of the world in nearly a year.

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

Stocks rallied heading into the weekend, with the S&P 500 finishing up 1.6% for the day. Friday’s 1%+ move ended four consecutive days of relative quiet, the longest stretch without a 1% swing (on a closing basis) since a seven day streak in mid-November. We still have had just one week over the past year that did not experience a single 1% swing in the S&P 500.

This is the video recording of the March 2nd, 2023, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

03/02/23 2:00 PM ET

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Dynamic Portfolio Update: This year's rally has so far failed to turn long-term trends higher and is starting to look ragged. As we see how this period of digestion plays out, we are reducing the equity exposure in our Tactical Opportunity Portfolio.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Moving into commodities when they are trending higher versus stocks increases return and lowers risk relative to otherwise static equity exposure. Commodities may not always earn a spot in our portfolios, but we do well to remember to include them in the asset allocation conversation. 

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe: