Everyone has an opinion on the stock underlying today's trade. Strong opinions.
The Bulls think the stock price is a steal here. The Bears think this party is over, and a long overdue comeuppance is on the horizon, which will careen the stock price lower.
While the market has been rising early in the week, I've been less than impressed. The volumes in the indexes just isn't there. At least not enough for me to issue an 'all clear' signal to get back to our regularly scheduled Bull Market.
And so, I've been keeping an eye on some weak stocks to see how they'd recover in any broader market bounces.
For today's trade, this stock had every opportunity to reverse course. But it just can't find its footing, which makes me think the next big move is lower again.
With today's early rally and VIX on its way back down the recent mountain, now feels like the right time to capture some options premium in a wide Iron Condor in the QQQs.
I'm not calling that the bottom is in, but I'm open to it. Either way, it's unlikely we V-Bottom out of this morass, which is why betting on a wide, sloppy, sideways range feels right to me.
Today's setup is in a hotel name that has been getting clobbered as of late and may be on the verge of completing a major topping pattern.
Unless the broader market sticks a landing soon and rallies hard, lifting all boats with it, I have a hard time believing this stock doesn't have further to fall.
Today's trade is one of those setups where if the bulls can't stick this landing (making it a good buy), then it's goodbye and good night.
I'm betting on the latter. But being mindful that it could in fact be a good time to buy for those brave enough to step in, I'll be getting short with a defined risk put debit spread.
Today's trade is in a therapeutics name that continues to press into new highs in spite of all the bearishness that the broader stock indexes are suggesting.
And if you look at the implied volatlity in the options, it seems that traders are skeptical that the trend can continue.
Today's trade is a similar bet to yesterday's trade. With $VIX in the 20s and big caps putting in short term bottoms at key pivot points, these are opportunities for opportunistic put spread sellers.