Well, now that the bounce feels like it's running out of a little steam, it's time to scan the universe of stocks that have been underperforming and had tepid bounces (at best) during this week's counter-trend rally.
Today's stock is one of the laggards in the semiconductors space.
Since there seems to have been a bit of confusion about the $QQQ campaign that I embarked upon back on Wednesday, I'm creating a new post to help make new trades clearer for you all.
So far this AM, I've closed one of our put spreads at my profit target, and I'm adding a new one.
With $VIX showing signs that perhaps yesterday was a blow off top, I'm going to gingerly wade into the premium selling pond with a defined-risk Iron Condor trade on a semiconductor stock that may be entering a wide range of sideways chop.
It sure is acting like it. I'm very impressed with how Bitcoin has held in this week. Yes, it's down for the week like everything else. But the damage relative to tech stocks is minor.
Feels like now might be a good time to wade in with a mildly bullish bet.
Today's trade is something I don't do much of: a pairs trade, but with an options twist.
A typical pairs trade goes like this: You find two stocks that typically trade together, but for some reason, they've diverged. So, you buy the underperforming stock and short-sell an equal dollar amount of the outperforming stock. This is typically a market-neutral trade where you're betting the values of the two stocks will eventually resume their normal parity, resulting in a net profit from the two trades.
We have a situation developing right now that screams pairs trade to me, but I'm going to do it with options.
We have to be selective out here. The names that were working last year are not the names or sectors that are working this year.
Meanwhile, downtrends that have been in place for a year or more are starting to find their footing. And when you add in a relatively high short interest, if the worst is now behind us, then names like the one I'm trading today have the potential to surprise to the upside.
Everyone has an opinion on the stock underlying today's trade. Strong opinions.
The Bulls think the stock price is a steal here. The Bears think this party is over, and a long overdue comeuppance is on the horizon, which will careen the stock price lower.
While the market has been rising early in the week, I've been less than impressed. The volumes in the indexes just isn't there. At least not enough for me to issue an 'all clear' signal to get back to our regularly scheduled Bull Market.
And so, I've been keeping an eye on some weak stocks to see how they'd recover in any broader market bounces.
For today's trade, this stock had every opportunity to reverse course. But it just can't find its footing, which makes me think the next big move is lower again.
With today's early rally and VIX on its way back down the recent mountain, now feels like the right time to capture some options premium in a wide Iron Condor in the QQQs.
I'm not calling that the bottom is in, but I'm open to it. Either way, it's unlikely we V-Bottom out of this morass, which is why betting on a wide, sloppy, sideways range feels right to me.