Key Takeaway: New monthly highs reflect broad participation and a healthy rally. Stocks struggle to celebrate blowout quarters if future growth prospects are not bright. Elevated expectations bar could leave stocks & the economy victims of their own success.
Key Takeaway: Stocks have benefitted from an historic stretch of good news. Commodities suggest higher inflation may not be transitory. Global breadth trends turning higher.
With both Energy and Communication Services faltering in recent weeks, the sector leadership group has narrowed to Materials, Industrials, and Financials. Materials, which took over the top spot in the rankings this week, is the rare sector right now that has been a leader on both a short-term and long-term basis. Health Care and Real Estate (both of which made new highs last week) are climbing in the rankings and if recent strength persists could soon join the leadership group. Our industry group heat map shows continued leadership from mid-caps overall.
Key Takeaway: Broad market strength gets front page treatment. German Bund yields pointing the way higher for US Treasury yields. Economic activity is booming, holding true to the post-recession historical pattern.
Key Takeaway: New highs bring out the bulls. Excessive optimism offset by broad market strength in the US & around the world. Despite Fed assurances of patience, rising bond yields will soon put pressure on the liquidity backdrop.
Key Takeaway: The overall market continues to digest gains within a larger structural advance. Market sectors that relate to tangible goods push to new highs. Traditional safe-haven assets fail to ensure safety.
Financial, Energy, Industrial, and Material sectors continue their reign in our relative strength rankings, while mid-cap groups narrowly surpassed small-caps to command the top-tier of our industry group rankings. Though more defensive sectors continue to have the best relative strength on a short-term basis, Technology and Consumer Discretionary are starting to pick up in the near term as well. Small-cap deterioration persists at the industry group level, whereas large and mid-caps improve.
Key Takeaway: Even with bottlenecks & distortions, economic recovery & cyclical rally remain intact. Tactical risks have risen as the market digests gains of last year. Watch bond yields & global participation for evidence that the rally is ready to resume.
Key Takeaway: Small-caps hit pause but remain market leaders. Another breadth thrust shows rally participation remains robust. Bond yields are digesting recent rise, but the path of least resistance remains higher.
Key Takeaway: New high lists are expanding, yet investors are turning more cautious. Weight of the evidence favors focusing on opportunity over risk. Commodity market strength encouraging development for economy and investors. Rotation to cyclical leadership has just begun.
Key Takeaway: Crowded trades have come back to earth, but average stock and cyclical industry groups are making new highs. Economic momentum is building as recovery accelerates. Bond yields are still rising and long-awaited leadership rotation remains underway.
Key Takeaway: Market volatility has not interrupted rotation to new leadership. Long-term breadth remains robust, but shorter-term trends are in need of repair. Earnings and economic data continue to supply the market with positive surprises.
Key Takeaway: After record strength, breadth is taking a well-deserved breather.
This has the hallmarks of digestion more than divergence, especially after recording yet another breadth thrust. Re-opening optimism is running high and bond yields around the world are climbing.
With earnings and economic expectations still being revised higher, the path of least resistance for stocks remains higher even if we are starting to see a few more tripping hazards.
