From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

• March rally takes some sting off of a challenging Q1.
• Short-term strength not yet reflected in longer-term trends.
• More new lows than new highs in the US, but Emerging Market new high list expands.

Stocks continued to bounce off of their March lows last week. It’s not quite lipstick on a pig but this move does take some of the sting off of what has been a weak Q1 for equities. All eleven sectors in the S&P 500 are now in positive territory for March, but only three (Energy, Utilities and Financials) have YTD gains and two of those, just barely so. Four sectors, accounting for more than 50% of the market cap of the S&P 500, are still down 8% or more heading into the final week of the quarter.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

It has an ominous name, but not much of a signal. The so-called “Death Cross” occurs when the 50-day average closes below the 200-day average. Today, for the 25th time since 1970, that will happen for the S&P 500. This table shows both where the S&P 500 tends to be in relation to its peak when these Death Crosses have occurred in the past and the experience of the index in the wake of past crosses.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

• News headlines exacerbating underlying trends.
• Leadership rotation has accelerated in 2022.
• Time in the market is a waste of time if you are in the wrong market.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

• US equities churn as new lows out pace new highs.
• Bond market is taking notice that the flat-footed Fed is trying to get ahead of inflation.
• 60/40 portfolio off to its worst start in a generation could have “passive” investors looking for greener pastures.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

• It takes energy to stay on top of this market.
• Follow the leader goes global.
• Higher bond yields are adding market volatility but not financial stress.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

• Trends turning flat as breadth becomes a headwind.
• Investors too scared to buy ETF’s suggests sentiment is a tailwind.
• On yields & rates: US is following, not the leader.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Large-caps take the 2021 crown as mid-caps & small-caps struggle to get back in gear. US strength not being echoed among global equities. Tactical risk management model gives benefit of the doubt to bulls.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Indexes stumble as generals see their armies fleeing the field. Bond yields drop below important thresholds. Rising volatility brings focus back to managing risk.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Cyclical rally needs to prove its strength. New lows and expanding downside volume suggests more fissures beneath the surface. Focus on Value Line Geometric Index for evidence that downside risks are building.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Market breadth souring as new lows spike. Absence of breadth thrusts leaves the market adrift and vulnerable to cross breezes. Healthy appetites for risk likely lead to higher bond yields and commodities prices as well as improving broad market trends.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Inflation remains hot as narratives shift. Yields perk up as the bond market takes notice of price pressure. Gold catches a bid as real rates remain negative. Breadth trends point to US leadership.