From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
Bond yields are breaking higher across the board. So, it’s essential to understand that some stocks do better amid rising rates, while others prosper in markets with low growth and low yields.
For instance, cyclical and value stocks should outperform in a rising rate environment.
Meanwhile, growth, tech stocks, and any long-duration assets (bonds) typically lag. They become less attractive during periods where more economically sensitive areas offer more appealing opportunities.
And we’re already seeing this rotation into the rising rate beneficiaries, while growth stocks have come under pressure in recent weeks.
In today’s post, we’ll look at market internals of these groups to see what they suggest about recent price action.
We can compare growth to cyclicals by analyzing the ratio of Large-Cap Tech $XLK to Energy $XLE.
And we can further illustrate this growth-versus-value relationship through a variety of derivatives. They all tell similar stories.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
Considering the selling pressure in recent weeks, we were very excited to take a look at our breadth indicators today to see if we finally saw some downside expansion worth pointing out. Spoiler alert: There was nothing there.
Being as we're in a sideways market, we're always on the lookout for a change in character in internals that might suggest some resolutions are finally on the horizon. And since bears have been driving stocks lower since early this month, our focus is on new short-term lows.
With the S&P experiencing some volatility and revisiting its 50-day moving average this week, did we finally get that "fall day?"
The S&P 500 and the other US large-cap indexes have continued to grind to new highs all year, completely unphased by any of the deterioration in breadth beneath the surface.
But, when looking at the global stage, things are different…
In this post, we’ll look at the current state of market breadth around the globe and discuss whether internals are supporting the new highs in many international indexes.
It's always a worrying sign when price is making new highs at the index level with a lack of confirmation from internals. But that simply isn’t the case for ex-US equities these days.
In fact, it’s just the opposite, as we’re seeing our breadth metrics support and confirm the recent price action on a global scale.
Here we’re looking at the percentage of developed and emerging markets above their 50-day moving averages:
From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
Whether more stocks are going up or down these days simply depends on where you look. Some advance-decline lines are moving higher, but others are moving lower.
Weakness and divergences in these indicators are more often than not resolved over time, but the longer they persist the more concerning they become.
This hasn’t been an issue for most of the major averages, as the S&P 500 and other large-cap indexes keep making new highs with confirmation from their A/D lines.
Yet when we look beneath the surface, and particularly down the cap scale, we're seeing a different story. Ultimately, some stocks are going up, but most are not.
You’ve probably heard already, but the current environment is an absolute mess as the weight of the evidence continues to hang in the balance. In today’s post, we’ll discuss some charts that do a great job illustrating all the mixed signals out there right now.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
Let’s flip the script this week and take a more granular approach to our analysis of market internals.
In recent months, we’ve written at length about deteriorating breath. While it’s been our position that the divergences in these indicators are normal following an onslaught of initiation thrusts like the ones we had last year, the lack of participation beneath the surface was drying up to levels that were simply not sustainable.
This lack of confirmation has caused many to question the new highs from the S&P 500 and other major US averages. But, the major averages have masked the pervasive weakness we’ve already been experiencing beneath the surface this year.
In last week’s post, we discussed this weakness in breadth and posed the following question:
Perhaps we’ve already seen the market correct beneath the surface. Maybe that was it…
This is a new development that's commanding our attention right now, mainly because these are the weakest conditions we’ve seen many of our breadth measures since last year.
We're going to flip the script a bit this week with our RPP Report. We typically don't publish a report during week's where we have a monthly conference call as JC covers our positioning and summarizes our key themes and views there.
But we didn't do one last week either because we had just published our Q3 Playbook which laid out our current position in a painfully detailed manner (it was 250 pages!).
In today's post, we're simply going to recap our "Key Themes For The Current Quarter" and update clients on some major developments that have taken place in the past few weeks.
We've got some important things to cover so let's get right to it!
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
You’re probably sick of hearing this but it’s important! Even with the recent bout of volatility, new lows have been non-existent across most of the major averages in the US.
To be fair, many of our Intermarket relationships are still flashing red, suggesting continued headwinds for risk assets.
Earlier this week we saw significant selling pressure in equity markets both domestically and abroad. Conditions are as ripe as they’ve been in more than a year for the bears.
So, did we finally get that “fall day,” as our fellow Technician and friend Mike Hurley likes to call it?
The simple answer is no...
To us, the recent readings from our breadth indicators are no different from similar pullbacks over the past 18 months and not what a significant market top would look like.
But we always need to remember that like anything else, analyzing internals is a process.
With this in mind, let’s check in on the 21-day lows for all S&P market cap sizes:
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Earlier in the week, we held our July Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
Several weeks back, we discussed the fact that new lows were non-existent across just about all of the major averages in the US.
It’s pretty hard for a market of stocks to decline in any meaningful way without an expansion in downside participation. And we just aren't seeing any signs of this when looking through our breadth chartbooks and new low indicators - not even on shorter timeframes. This remains the case today.
So you would think this would be an excellent opportunity for the bears to take control… But, they just can't seem to get it done! Let's dive into some of our breadth and sentiment indicators and see what they're currently saying about this.
Just because there's no divergence in the A/D line doesn't mean the market can't correct. But if there's a divergence in the A/D line, you better pay attention.
That's what's happening here.
Remember, at first it was just the Nasdaq Advance-Decline line diverging. This one peaked back in early February. Notice how we had a divergence before the COVID crash as well:
