From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Many of the same themes that we came across in last week's Commodity Report continue to play out.

Overhead supply keeps demand at bay while price churns sideways, offering mixed signals.

Like many areas of the market, Commodities are a bit messy.

While sideways price action and choppy market conditions are the norms at the moment, there is one consolidation in the Commodity space that demands our close attention.

As JC pointed out in last night's Monthly Strategy Session, one of the most important charts right now is the Copper/Gold ratio as its intermarket implications span far and wide.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

I think we can all agree that the market is an absolute hot mess right now.

The Precious Metals complex is as good an example of this as any right now.

In this post, we’ll use this shiny group of commodities as a case study to illustrate the mixed signals we see not just here but in asset classes all over the globe these days. 

It’s a major development, to say the least - so we’d be irresponsible not to monitor it closely as the way things resolve from here will likely have implications that span across markets, far and wide. 

We’ll also provide an update of our post from earlier in the month whereby we outlined a trade idea in Gold Miners.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Check out our latest Mystery Chart!

What we do here is take a chart that’s captured our attention, and remove the x and y-axes as well as any other labels that could help identify it.

This chart can be of any security, in any asset class, on any timeframe. Sometimes it’s an absolute price chart, other times it’s on a relative basis.

It might be a ratio, a custom index, or maybe the price is inverted. It could be all three!

The point is, when we aren’t able to recognize what’s in front of us, we put aside any biases we may have and scrutinize it objectively.

While you can try to guess the chart, the point is to make a decision…

So let us know what it is… Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

Overall, Commodities came under pressure this past week.

We noticed many markets running into resistance at former highs, and this was most prevalent in the Energy sector, with the exception of Ethanol.

Other areas of the Commodity space like Grains and Softs also showed short-term weakness. However, there were still some bright spots as usual.

Two of the markets that really stood out were Lean Hogs and Palladium.

First up, Lean Hogs broke out of a 6.5-year base, clearing its pivotal 2019 highs.

You know when Livestock futures are breaking out of half-decade long bases that Commodities are most likely in a bull market.

I believe the saying goes, "the bigger the base the higher in space."

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley.

We recently held March’s Monthly Conference Call which our Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll provide a summary of the call by highlighting 5 of the most important charts/topics we covered along with commentary on each.

Let’s dive into it.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

One lesson you learn pretty quickly as a market analyst is that not all assets are created equal.

Each and every financial instrument carries its own unique bundle of nuances... from a stocks' beta or systematic volatility as well as its residual risk, to the fee structure and rebalancing methodology of an exchange-traded fund or note, to the settlement and delivery procedures governing futures contracts.

All of these things impact the behavior and performance of these various markets.

Today, we're going to focus specifically on the inner workings of International Country ETFs and the way they are impacted by the currency component inherent in these vehicles.

Let's dive right into it, starting with last week's Mystery Chart reveal.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

In this week’s Commodity Report, we saw a continuance of many of the same themes that we've been pounding the table on for months now.

Mainly, strength in the procyclical areas of the market like Energy and Base Metals. This fits with what we’re seeing in Equity Markets as the rotation out of Mega-cap growth and into more cyclical sectors takes hold.

However, Crude Oil and Copper aren’t the only Commodities catching a bid right now. We’re also seeing strength in the grain markets. 

One of the charts that caught our attention this week was Palm Oil Futures.

Palm Oil is one of the most important Commodities in Asia and combined with Soybean Oil it accounts for roughly 63% of the global production of vegetable oils. Its uses vary from cooking and producing processed foods to personal care products like soaps and fragrances. It also plays a key role as feedstock for biofuel production.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

When reviewing our chartbook this week, one major theme that stood out is the relentless bid we continue to see in Crude Oil.

Most risk-on commodities have consolidated or pulled back recently as the dollar has rebounded back to its highest level in over three months.

But, not oil...

Crude has completely ignored this action from the US Dollar and tacked on an additional 12% gain since DXY bottomed about two weeks ago.

Ever since trading at negative prices last spring, Crude has been on an absolute tear.

Price just broke above its key prior highs and closed the week at its highest level since 2018. As long as Crude is above this key former resistance around 65 the bias is higher and we're targeting the 2018 highs just above 75 over the near-term.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley.

The US Dollar is one of the most important pieces of the intermarket puzzle.

It affects all the major asset classes, and a rising dollar could impact the current market environment by creating a headwind for stocks and suppressing commodity-centric and cyclical areas of the market.

This could put pressure on our current market thesis as US Dollar strength has the potential to put a damper on the recent rally in risk assets.

In this post, we'll take a look at what's going on underneath the surface in the US Dollar Index by running through some of it's largest components.

We'll then weigh the evidence in front of us in an effort to determine a directional bias for King Dollar.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley.

We held our March Monthly Strategy Session last night which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll provide a summary of the call by highlighting three of the most important charts and topics we covered along with commentary on each.

Let’s dive into it.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

We think it's time to buy Gold Miners again, specifically the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF $GDX.

The yellow metal has not been a great place to deploy capital over the last 6 months as the environment has significantly favored stocks over rocks... and risk-assets over defensive ones in general.

Owning Gold or Gold Miners has been nothing more but opportunity cost. However, there is mounting evidence that suggests now might be the time to jump back into this trade.

First, Commodities have really been working as an asset class. We've been pointing this out for months now, from Industrial Metals and Ags to even petroleum-based commodities.

Although through the early innings of this Commodities resurgence, Gold and Gold Miners have taken a back seat as prices peaked all the way back in the summer of last year and have been trending lower since.

We've been talking about Commodities and a possible upcoming supercycle in this asset class.

The reason we're inclined to this view is that we're seeing signs of this on several different charts across the globe. Now when that happens, we've got to sit up and notice.

Remember when the unthinkable happened and Crude Oil traded below zero? Entertaining as it may be (to some) such extreme readings on the chart tend to act as signals for the future.

Take a look at the chart below. It is the S&P500 relative to the inverted ratio of the CRB Index (Cap-Weighted Commodity Index). The long-term chart below suggests that the extreme negative readings that we saw in Crude Oil seem to have probably sealed the top in this ratio. Can Commodities begin their outperformance going forward? It's quite likely. The individual constituents certainly look like they're ready for a good move!

Click on chart to enlarge view.