From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

We held our August Monthly Strategy Session last night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month. 

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Was that it for the recent bounce in the US dollar?

A little more than a month ago, we began to see broad-based strength in USD emerge on both a short and intermediate-term basis. 

Since then, it’s been the central theme in currency markets. 

But we're starting to see signs that this near-term US dollar dominance could be fading as bulls have had ample opportunity to push the USD higher in recent months but have made little progress. 

The lack of follow-through can be seen in our long USD trade ideas from late June, as most are not working. We recently saw many crosses reach our risk level, but price rebounded instead of triggering an entry. The EUR/USD is a great example of this. 

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

We can’t ignore the resiliency in base metals. 

Despite the classic year-two chop, base metals have remained buoyant while many other risk assets have come under pressure. They’ve even gained ground during the recent bout of US dollar strength. 

And now we’re beginning to see signs of serious leadership emerge as Crude Oil consolidates its recent gains. The broad-based strength beneath the surface for this procyclical group of commodities has been undeniable. These risk-on metals have been the steadiest performers within the entire asset class for the better part of this year.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The current market environment demands that we adhere to our risk management protocols as strictly as ever.

It’s a mess out there!

And with each passing day, more and more signs point to these challenging conditions persisting.

There is one data point in particular that we believe is likely to remain a serious headwind for risk assets: continued strength from the US Dollar.

We’ve covered this theme in detail the past couple of months as USD has rebounded against just about every major currency we track.

As always, we will continue to monitor the dollar as it is a vital piece to the intermarket puzzle.

Put simply, when investors are seeking safety in the dollar, it’s usually happening in an environment where stocks are under pressure.

Last week, we highlighted the violation of a key pivot low in our G-10 Ex-US Currency Index.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The markets are a mess and have been a mess for months now.

Risk assets are under pressure as the USD strengthens and overhead supply thwarts potential rallies.

Yet, we continue to find pockets of strength in both stocks and commodities.

We’ve said it time and time again during the past several months...the markets are a bifurcated, choppy mess! 

But during these challenging periods, identifying areas that are bucking the trend can prove valuable over intermediate- and longer-term timeframes.

Basically, the assets holding up the best or even breaking out while the broader market is trendless are likely to be your future leaders.

Let’s take a look at one area of the market doing just that!

Here’s a chart of the ASC Green Revolution Index: 

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

A revolution in energy is upon us.

Some like to call it the green revolution or the transition to renewable and alternative energy. How you want to label it isn’t what matters. 

All we care about is that the landscape for energy and how we use it is changing dramatically.

As the world quickly changes and the demand for energy expands, how we generate and utilize it, as well as the natural resources we rely upon to do so - will inevitably change, and adapt to this new environment.

Of course, we’ll continue to burn coal, crude oil, and natural gas for the foreseeable future. But there are other pockets of strength arising in areas that could very well be secular growth trends for decades into the future.

We’re always looking to identify these new arenas of growth. Here’s the way we see it...

With strong prospects for global growth and economic expansion in the cards, additional energy sources will need to be created so that supply can meet the growing demand being placed on an already antiquated and stressed infrastructure.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Earlier in the week, we held our July Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.

Let’s get right into it!

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

What started out as a tactical bounce in the US Dollar could be turning into a full-fledged reversal of the primary trend.

Defensive assets such as US Treasury bonds and the Japanese yen are catching a bid. On the other hand, risk assets continue to struggle at overhead supply. Many are experiencing significant selling pressure at these logical levels.

With each passing day, the choppy environment that’s been in place since early February is becoming increasingly messy. 

This is a perfect environment for the US dollar to thrive as more and more investors are hiding out in safe-haven assets and waiting for the smoke to clear.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Opportunities are springing up in the commodity space!

Yes, energy, base metals, and (especially) precious metals continue to consolidate below overhead supply.

But this doesn’t necessarily speak to weakness… 

In fact, much of the sideways chop in commodities is taking place at logical levels of resistance. And aside from the dramatic sell-off in lumber, we see more upside resolutions than violations of critical support levels.

We recently pointed out that base metals managed to hang tough in the face of a significant correction in copper. And this week, tin is breaking out to new all-time highs.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

As risk comes off the table in this messy market, we want to continue to look for opportunities to bet on the US Dollar.

Bonds are catching a bid. Procyclical commodities are consolidating below overhead supply. The AUD/JPY is rolling over. The Yen is strengthening. And of course, King Dollar has begun to reassert its dominance. 

Consider all this defensive posturing within the context of the choppy year-two environment we're in, and it appears investors are really beginning to seek shelter from the storm.

And what’s one of the most popular safe-haven assets?  

The USD.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Overhead supply is a theme we're seeing all over these days. And this isn't just true for the stock market, but it's also dominating the commodity landscape.

Crude Oil reached our objective of 76 and turned lower. Copper remains stuck below its former 2011 highs. And Gold has been an absolute mess since peaking last August.

Even the few commodities that have recently broken above resistance zones -- such as Gasoline and Heating Oil -- have yet to follow through and confirm their new highs in any meaningful way.

Remember, commodities have enjoyed some explosive moves over the past year. Now, many are at logical levels to pause and digest recent gains. This is healthy stuff. Normal market behavior.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

As US Dollar strength unfolds and US treasuries continue to catch a bid, it’s no wonder our motto around here has been bonds, cash, champagne.

It’s been working, and it continues to work!

We’ve been downright obnoxious about our tactical view of the US Dollar over the past month.

A potential bounce was developing, strength emerged, and we pointed out numerous crosses in which the dollar was poised for a push higher.

The market environment directed our focal point toward the Dollar. And now that it appears risk is coming off the table, we’re shifting our focus to the Yen.

Usually, when we talk about risk-on/risk-off behavior and the Yen, the AUD/JPY is at the center.