From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
Commodities and cyclical assets have remained resilient, defying headwinds from the US dollar for nearly a year.
But the US Dollar Index $DXY is sliding lower as evidence mounts in favor of further weakness…
Could those headwinds soon fade away?
Today, we’re going to highlight some critical developments and discuss what they mean for the US dollar, stocks, and commodities in the weeks and months ahead.
Let’s dive in!
First is a chart of the US Dollar Index $DXY:
Its inability to hold above the November 2021 highs screams "failed breakout!"
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
If you’re searching for strength, look no further than commodities!
With risk assets coming under increasing pressure, the strength from commodities and commodity-related stocks stands out that much more. Except for rates, it’s the only thing the bulls have left.
When we look beneath the surface, so far, the story centers around energy – whether we’re talking about crude oil printing fresh seven-year highs or Chevron Corp. $CVX breaking out of a multi-year base to new all-time highs.
Energy is -- and has been -- re-asserting itself as the next dominant leadership group.
But unlike the stock market -- where energy is the only group working -- we’re seeing broad participation within the commodities market.
In fact, there are still plenty of pockets of strength we want to be buying.
Today, we’re going to highlight one of those areas by outlining a trade setup in soybean oil.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The Federal Reserve is doing its best to prepare the market for what is expected to be a year of rate hikes. But investors aren’t exactly enthusiastic about this outlook, as stocks came under further pressure following Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee announcement.
The bond market is also offering some valuable information again. And considering the recent volatility, it’s more important than ever to listen closely.
When we think about bonds, credit spreads are always top of mind, as they’re a great barometer of market health. When there's stress on risk assets, it shows up in credit spreads.
When analyzing credit spreads, all we’re doing is measuring the difference in yield between a Treasury (the safest bet) and a corporate bond (riskier asset) of the same maturity. If these spreads begin to widen, it’s usually problematic for equities.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
Risk assets are on the ropes after taking a series of heavy hits last week.
Equities have been a sea of red across the board as selling pressure broadens out. Growth continues to collapse, and even many of the latest leadership groups – like banks – are failing to hold their breakouts.
When we look inside the stock market, there's certainly a bear market feel to the price action in recent weeks. For example, offensive areas are being sold indiscriminately while defensive sectors make new relative highs.
But when we look outside the stock market, the story is very different. Despite the volatility, we’re still not seeing much of a bid in traditional safe-haven assets.
In today’s post, we’ll focus on the Japanese yen. But it’s the same story for gold and Treasuries.
Here is a look at all three. From top to bottom, this is the Gold ETF $GLD, the US Treasuries ETF $IEF, and the Japanese yen $JPY:
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
The bull market for commodities is alive and well. They were the top-performing asset class last year, and they’re kicking off the new year with a lead once again.
The energy-heavy CRB Index is printing new seven-year highs, and our ASC Equal-Weight Commodity Index just resolved from a nine-month base to its highest level since 2013.
To take advantage of this area of leadership, we’ve been highlighting strength and outlining long ideas in a variety of commodity markets.
We know not everyone has access to the futures markets, and that’s OK, because there are plenty of opportunities to express a bullish thesis on commodities through the equity market.
To make this easier, we’ve put together a universe of stocks that offer investors exposure to a wide array of different commodities.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
There have been some fireworks to kick off the new year. One of the biggest developments in 2022 has to be the US 10-year yield breaking to its highest level in two years.
The direction in which yields resolve from their 2021 consolidation will impact all the major asset classes, including bonds, stocks, and commodities. We’re already seeing procyclical assets catch an aggressive bid as the 10-year flirts with an upside resolution.
For now, the path of least resistance is higher. But we still need to see follow-through and confirmation before we can be comfortable that these new highs are here to stay.
When we look at the international bond market, it’s not just domestic Treasury yields that are on the rise. We’re actually seeing rates make new highs all across the developed world.
After weeks of failing to hold breakouts on an individual currency basis, the tight coil in the DXY finally resolved lower.
The brief reprieve in USD strength was immediately felt across markets last week, with cyclical/value stocks and procyclical commodities catching an aggressive bid.
Now that the headwinds associated with dollar strength appear to be easing, will risk assets enjoy a tailwind in the form of sustained USD weakness?
Or was this just the latest fake-out from the DXY?
Let’s take a look at a couple of charts and highlight the levels we're watching in the coming weeks and months.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
There's been a subtle risk-on tone in recent weeks. With each passing day, it's been spreading to more and more markets and charts.
Rates are rising around the globe. The underlying uptrend in commodities is intact and looks ready for another up leg. Our equal-weight commodity index is resolving higher from its current range. And cyclical stocks such as energy and financials are breaking out to new highs.
All of these events speak to a growing risk appetite and support higher prices for risk assets.
Although, two areas where we aren't seeing such clear evidence that risk-seeking behavior is re-entering the market would be currencies and our intermarket ratios.
The AUD/JPY cross is still stuck within a range. High-yield bonds $HYG relative to their safer alternatives -- US Treasuries $IEI -- failed to hold their recent highs. And the copper/gold ratio is a hot mess.
We would expect to see decisive upside resolutions from these charts if investors are positioning for another leg higher.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Crude oil bulls are back in town!
They kicked the year off by pushing price back above 76 and reclaiming the upper bounds of a multi-year base. Oil is the most important commodity in the world, so it’s hard to overstate just how bullish fresh seven-year highs would be.
But we’re not quite there yet. We still need to take out the fall highs.
The 76 level marks the former 2018 highs and the breakout from a massive reversal pattern. Buyers ran into an overwhelming amount of supply here during the back half of 2021. When they did manage to reclaim those former highs, it was short-lived, and the move quickly failed.
It seemed like the bond market was heading in the right direction – except for Treasury spreads. The 2s/10s spread was the missing piece of the puzzle, continuing to push toward new 52-week lows…
Until now!
Only a couple of trading sessions into the new year, the bond market is providing plenty of fireworks. Rates are jumping higher across the curve, and critical treasury spreads such as 2s/10s, are following higher:
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The rally in the US Dollar Index $DXY is stalling out.
With each passing day, dollar internals are weakening, and the prospect of a bullish resolution from the current continuation pattern in DXY is diminishing. We expect these patterns to resolve quickly. And when they don’t, that’s information.
The bottom line is evidence continues to stack against the USD.
With that as our backdrop, let’s check in on a long USD trade that was triggered in November and outline how we want to navigate the coming days and weeks.
